The Democratic Party now owes an urgent reckoning

Donald Trump achieved a decisive victory in a deeply divided nation. And in doing so, the Republican president-elect exposed a fundamental weakness within the Democratic base and overcame concerns about his moral failings, becoming the first U.S. president with a felony conviction.

The former Republican president won over frustrated voters with bold promises that his ardent economic populism and its conservative culture would improve their lives. However, will be tested immediately, and there is reason to believe that his plans for mass deportations and huge tariffs They can harm the very people who allowed their victory.

Even so, he is prepared to enter the White House on January 20, 2025, from an indisputable position of strength. With votes still to be counted, he could become the first Republican in two decades in winning the popular vote.

The results left the Democrats facing an urgent reckoning and immediately, no obvious leader to unite the anti-Trump coalition and without a clear plan to rebuild as an emboldened Trump prepares to retake Washington.

Black voters – men and women – They have been the basis of the Democratic Partyand in recent years they have been joined by Latinos and young voters.

All three groups still preferred Democrat Kamala Harris. But preliminary data from AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 115,000 voters nationwide, suggests that Trump made significant gains.

Voters under 30 represent a fraction of the total electorate, but about half of them supported Harris. That compared to about 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. Just over 4 in 10 young voters went for Trump, up from about a third in 2020.

At the same time, black and Latino voters seemed slightly less likely to support Harris than to Biden four years ago, according to AP VoteCast.

About 8 in 10 Black voters supported Harris, down from the roughly 9 in 10 who backed Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was slightly lower than the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. Support for Trump among those groups seemed to increase slightly compared to 2020. Overall, Those small gains produced a huge result.

Despite all the spectacle, blasphemies and insultsTrump ended up winning over voters with big promises to improve the economy, block the flow of immigrants at the southern border, and his siren song of “make America great again.”

He also appealed to religious voters of both parties taking advantage of the Democrats’ support for the transgender community.

In general, nearly half of Trump voters said inflation was the main factor that influenced their electoral decisions. Approximately the same number He said the same thing about the situation at the border. between the United States and Mexico, according to AP VoteCast.

He overlooked the fact that the economy, by many conventional measures, it’s solid – inflation is largely under control and wages have risen – while border crossings they fell drastically. He ignored the facts and convinced voters by repeating them incessantly.

Also He sold them the promise of the largest mass deportation operation of American history, although He didn’t explain how it would work.. And it threatens to impose massive tariffs on key products from China and other American adversaries, which economists warn will could dramatically increase prices for average Americans.

Ultimately, Trump’s victory may have had as much to do with the fundamental challenges Harris faced all along. Faced with deep voter frustration over the direction of the country – with Biden’s approval rating at minimum– never distanced himself from the incumbent president of his party. Although Trump has been the central figure in American politics for nine years, he convinced voters that he represented change.

Trump stands to inherit a nation with deep political and cultural fissures and a worried electorate.

When asked what most influenced their vote, about half of voters they cited the future of democracy. This figure is higher than the proportion of those who answered the same thing about inflation, immigration or abortion policy. And this cuts across both major parties: About two-thirds of Harris voters and about a third of Trump voters said the future of democracy was the most important factor in their vote.

Not surprising, given the realities of the Trump era and the campaign rhetoric.

Trump refused to acknowledge his defeat in 2020 and watched as his supporters ransacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, as Congress met to certify Democrat Joe Biden’s victory. Trump even muttered two days before election day that he “should not have left” the White House after repeatedly promising, retaliation against his political enemies.

Harris, late in the campaign, joined other critics — including some of Trump’s former White House chiefs of staff — in describing the former president as a “fascist.” Trump, for his part, called Harris a “communist.”

The incomplete results show that Donald Trump’s criminal convictionsthe additional pending indictments, and any concerns about his more incendiary rhetoric simply were not enough of a concern to prevent tens of millions of Americans from voting for him.

According to AP VoteCast, just over half of voters said Harris has the moral character necessary to be president, compared to about 4 in 10 who said the same about Trump. It is entirely possible, as Trump has said many times during the campaign, that his legal danger has actually helped him.

As things stand, Trump may never face the sentence in a business fraud case in New York in which he was convicted of 34 serious crimes. At the moment, his sentencing is scheduled for the end of this month.

A federal indictment in Florida has already been dismissed, freeing him from a trial over whether he violated U.S. immigration law. protection of national security secrets. And he made it clear that would use his power as president to file the federal case against him for his participation in the January 6 attack on the United States Capitol. That would leave a racketeering case pending in Georgia against Trump and others accused of trying to subvert the result of the 2020 election.

It was the first presidential election after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and ended a woman’s national right to terminate a pregnancy. It was also the first time a Republican presidential candidate excessively courted men with a hypermasculine approach.

But the resulting “gender gap” It was not enough to sink Trump.

About half of women supported Harris, while about half of men went with Trump, according to AP VoteCast. That appears to largely match the percentages for Biden and Trump in 2020.

Just a few months ago, Harris generated incredible buzz throughout the party. Collection more than a billion dollars overnight. He dominated the debate with Trump. It filled stadiums. And just a few days ago it drew massive crowds to the Ellipse and the National Mall.

But in the end, It wasn’t enough.

Meanwhile, the Republicans They took control of the Senate, unseating veteran Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and putting several other Democratic incumbents on the brink of defeat. The results will give Trump a significant advantage in pushing his agenda through Congress. Your only hope is to win a majority in the House built primarily through key suburban districts in California and New York, but that was far from certain early Wednesday.

In any case, results reduce Democrats’ geographic footprint and, with Brown’s defeat, they diminish the kind of working-class voice that can counter Trump’s appeal.

Trump has already managed to present the Democrats as culturally removed from the American middle class. Now Democrats are wondering how to go back to connect with parts of the country and sectors of the electorate that rejected them.