In the elections of 2004, Bush got 44% of the Latino vote but this Tuesday Trump reached 45%, a surprising increase of 13 points compared to 2020, according to exit polls released by NBC News. While another Edison Research survey raises that support to 46%.
Trump’s rival, the Democrat Kamala Harris obtained 53% of the Latino vote a figure well below the 65% that was achieved Joe Biden in the 2020 elections, 66% for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and 71% of Hispanic support for Barack Obama in 2012.
The Edison Research survey indicated that Trump won with the support of 55% of Hispanic men19 points more than the 36% it obtained four years before; while it obtained the support of 38% of Hispanic women, 8 points more than in 2020.
In the key stateswho are the ones who decide the election in the United States, Harris achieved disastrous results in Latino vote. In six of them he got fewer Hispanic votes than Biden and only in Wisconsin he scored one point more than the current president, according to NBC News.
Of 36 million Latinos
eligible to vote in the United States, 65% voted in Tuesday’s elections.
In the key state of Michigan, Harris achieved 35% support, 24 points less than Biden in 2020. While in Pennsylvaniawhere Biden had obtained 78% of the Latino vote, Harris lowered it to 57%, 21 points less.
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In counties where more than 20% of voting-age Americans were Hispanic, the margin of Trump on Harris improved by 13 points from his 2020 performance against Biden.
In FloridaHarris scored 11 points less in the Latino vote compared to 2020, while in Texas The drop was 15 points.
According to NBC News, there were two other milestones on Tuesday: Trump won the Latino vote in Starr County, Texas, who had voted Democrat for 100 years. While Miami-Dade, Florida, voted overwhelmingly Republican for the first time in more than 30 years.
A strong leader, the cost of living and the economy
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But why has Trump increased his pool of Latino votes?
The explanation would be in the economysince Latinos believe that they could be better, and in the authoritarian figure of Trumpwith which many Hispanics identify.
An NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll found in September that 34% of Latinos classified the cost of living as the issue of greatest concernfollowed by jobs and the economy in general with 20%.
In the Edison Research poll published by Reuters after the election, about 66% of voters Hispanics considered the U.S. economy to be in bad shape, compared to half of 2020 Latino voters who gave that answer. 46% said their family’s financial situation was worse than four years agocompared to 20% who said the same in 2020.
In the campaign, Trump not only has it had a mark anti-immigrant speechalso promised to protect workers from global economic competition and offered tax cuts.
Manuel Manuel Orozcodirector of the Program on Migration, Remittances and Development of Inter-American Dialoguelisted The Commerce three reasons that explain the increase in support from the Latino vote Towards the Republicans:
“First, political sympathy with a strong leader –consideration that results from a mixture of Latin American political culture and masculinity in men in the United States–. The moments in which the Latino vote has been more Republican occurs when there are strong Republican leaders, such as Bush, Trump, Reagan”indicates Orozco.
“Second, I believe that the immigration issue, as much as the economic issue, influenced the most drastic change towards Trump. In particular, because migration was associated with the lack of State control over the country’s sovereignty. The reading is relatively simplistic, ‘they are letting a lot of people in’”he added
“Third, it could have been inflation or prices, rather than the economy in general. People prioritize the effect of the cost of living on their income… One can have a job, but not be earning enough due to high prices”, he stated.
Orozco He stressed that it should be kept in mind that the male tendency of the vote towards Trump was general. “In that sense, although there is a strong Latin turn, the impact of the male gender on the election was very decisive.“, said.
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Jesus Garciaeditor at La Opinion and El Diario Nueva York, told The Commerce that all the surveys that have been done on latinos agree that the main concern is the economic issue divided into several themes.
“The two main ones have to do with the cost of livingthat is, the inflation. Although this fell in the last year, prices have not fallen to the same level. “The Biden administration has acknowledged that there was a challenge that it did not know how to solve, but noted that business owners were also trying to keep their profits high and were not lowering prices sufficiently accordingly,” Garcia indicated.
“Latinos were also concerned about the jobthey asked that there be enough job opportunities in the country, with better salaries. Another aspect that stood out was access to affordable housing, because many people, not just Latinos, face housing problems because it is quite expensive to rent, and sometimes It is almost impossible for many families to buy a home”, the journalist continued.
García also specified that Latinos are concerned about the issue of security and gun violence. “This draws a lot of attention because the Republican Party He is particularly a defender of the use of weapons or their sale. So, there is a contradiction there that experts still cannot understand very well. On the one hand, defend access to weapons, but on the other hand, complain precisely about the violence that access to weapons unleashes.”he explained.
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Trump He promised during his campaign to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.whom he has described as criminals and mentally ill. At this point, many Hispanic voters support the tough policy announced by the Republican. According to Edison Research’s exit poll, 25% of Hispanic respondents said most undocumented immigrants should be deported to the countries where they came from. In comparison, 40% of all respondents supported that measure by the tycoon.
How do you explain that there are Latino migrants supporting Trump’s proposals that toughen immigration? García told El Comercio that this apparent contradiction between Latinos has to do with a matter of belonging. “People who manage to obtain a green card or who manage to obtain citizenship through naturalization feel that they have secured their passage in the United States, their permanence in the country. And they join in supporting these more restrictive immigration policies.”
García said that this phenomenon has been seen a lot with the recent wave of migrants who arrived in certain sanctuary cities. “In New York It is very interesting because many migrants, even undocumented ones who cannot vote and who do not have any federal rights, were rejecting the new migrants because they felt that in some way they had been betrayed by not having any benefits and the new migrants were getting a protection, even if it was provisional, in addition to some social help.”
“So, that obviously generated a movement of rejection, as well as social resentment, precisely towards these new immigrants. The position on the issue of immigration among Latinos varies greatly, depending on the area where they are,” Indian.
García said that La Opinión published the story of a Latina woman who achieved citizenship during the government of Trumpbut who is married to an undocumented immigrant who could be deported. He could not obtain any immigration benefits at this time because he was already deported once, which implies a punishment and would practically be disqualified for legalization. She has two children who were born in the United States.
But García notes that There is a bill presented by a Republican congressman to withdraw citizenship from children of immigrants. So, he says, there is a disconnect from reality between Latino voters and immigration issues. “When you ask them why they are taking these positions, they often do not answer directly about an issue and turn it around.”