An international deal: the map of interests to end the war in Lebanon

Efforts and discussions continue between Israel and other countries on the possibility of settling and stopping the fighting in Lebanon. Alongside the contacts with the Biden administration in the US, the emerging arrangement is also expected to include security and policy guarantees from Russia to stop the smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah. The picture of the emerging and emerging agreement presents an extensive international round deal, in which several countries besides Israel gain something that brings them to support it.

Israel

Against the background of statements and briefings by security officials that the IDF is close to completing the tactical tasks assigned to it in southern Lebanon, Israel is preparing to complete the military operation in the region. After more than 13 months of war, Israel is very interested in reaching an agreement to end the war in the north that will allow the return of dozens The thousands of residents evacuated to their homes are very interested in reaching an agreement in which they can end the war on good terms, especially after Trump’s election. It is likely that Israel’s ability to enforce the ceasefire militarily after Trump’s entry into the White House will be greater than in the situation in which it withered Harris would have won the presidential election.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar confirmed this morning (Monday) that progress has been made in the negotiations for a cease-fire in Lebanon, and said that the main remaining challenge is the question of enforcing the agreements that will be reached, that is, Israel’s ability to militarily enforce the terms of the cease-fire in the event of violations by Hezbollah. Sa’ar said in a briefing to the foreign media that “the Russians in Syria can assist in the rearming of Hezbollah.” Against the background of Defense Minister Israel Katz’s statement yesterday, Sa’ar said that although Hezbollah’s missile capabilities have been severely damaged and mostly destroyed, the war against the terrorist organization is not yet over.

U.S

The Biden administration has been pushing for a long time to bring about a ceasefire in the fighting in Lebanon, with or without connection to the war in the Gaza Strip. In the environment of the outgoing democratic president, they are very interested in achieving a political achievement before the end of the term. An agreement to end the war in Lebanon before the end of Biden’s term may also help to a large extent in shaping the narrative of the Biden administration in the US, against a background of severe criticism against him among the public on the left and the Arab and Muslim communities in the country, which to a large extent helped Trump win in the key state of Michigan.

 

Trump in the election campaign alongside the leaders of Arab communities in the US

BREAKING: Trump is in Dearborn, Michigan visiting local leaders in Arab-majority city before Rally in Warren, MI
pic.twitter.com/rj4z3D4tNN

— Publius (@OcrazioCornPop) November 1, 2024

TRUMP
THE PEACEMAKER

NEW: Arab and Muslim leaders in Michigan now endorsing Former President Trump.

The group says they want secure borders and strength in the Oval Office.

Looking for peace in the Middle East.

“Blessed are the peacemakers,
for they shall be called… pic.twitter.com/HuzsYb1Uwn

— ZetaTalk Followers: Watch X, Planet X, aka Nibiru (@ZT_Followers) October 27, 2024

Alongside the Biden administration’s sense of urgency to bring an end to the war in Lebanon, President-elect Trump has also expressed many times his desire to see the end of the war in Lebanon even before his inauguration on January 20, 2025. From Trump’s point of view, even if the Biden administration could cut a coupon on an agreement to end the war In Lebanon, the elected president will also take credit, for being able to say that his very election hastened the reaching of the agreement.

Russia

Putin is the surprising and unexpected actor of the extensive international deal to stop the war in Lebanon. Since the beginning of the war on October 7, 2023, there has been a substantial damage to the relations between Israel and Russia, which is increasingly positioning itself as a strategic partner of Iran. The Kremlin expects to sign a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Iran before the end of 2024, and security officials in Israel have made it clear that there is a major problem in giving Russia such a decisive role in maintaining Israel’s security.

 

 

 

Despite the reservations among the security forces, it is likely that Israel is interested in renewing the political partnership with Moscow, and perhaps taking advantage of the new situation to restore the shaky relations. According to the emerging agreement, Russia, which has a large military presence in Syria, will work to prevent a situation in which Syria returns to being a major smuggling route for illegal arms from Iran to Lebanon. Russia has a great interest in reducing the scope of Israeli attacks on Syrian territory, which threaten the stability of the Assad regime and its army.

 

 

 

Russia also has a clear interest in deepening its influence in the Middle East region, and obtaining additional levers of pressure in the region. For a long time it was estimated that Putin has an interest in maintaining the conflict and the war in the Middle East in order to divert American and global attention from the war in Ukraine, however with the election of Trump who emphasizes his desire to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, under conditions favorable to Putin, it is likely that Moscow now has a greater interest To support the end of the war in Lebanon, and perhaps also in Gaza in the future.

 

 

 

Alongside Israel’s desire to also use Russia as a balancing and restraining factor in the region, to date Moscow has not succeeded in its stated attempt to curb Iranian expansion in Syria. In the past year, with the deepening of cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, the Revolutionary Guards established a secret base in the heart of a Russian base in the area of ​​the city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria, thereby effectively providing Russia with a security blanket for Iran against an Israeli attack. In addition, in recent times several attacks attributed to Israel in the port city of Latakia have been carried out against Iranian weapons stockpiles, adjacent to the Russian base in Chamayim, the largest in Russia – which may indicate an Iranian attempt to take advantage of relations with Russia to avoid Israeli attacks. Because of this, there is only doubt that this time Moscow will be able to enforce its authority and malice against Iran and its proxies.

Iran

In Iran they keep saying that they are calling for a ceasefire – both in Lebanon and in Gaza. Tehran has a clear interest in ending the war in Lebanon now, to ensure the survival of Hezbollah and allow it to recover and perhaps restore its power. Also in the case of Iran, Trump’s election victory may have an impact on Iran’s position. Against the background of the fear that Trump will support or help Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in the future, it is likely that Tehran is interested in preserving the strength and survival of Hezbollah, perhaps as a lever of pressure and a threat on Israel to prevent such an attack.

 

 

 

Hezbollah

Like Iran, it is likely that the Dahiya district is also interested in bringing about an end to the war that will allow them to recover and renew their strength and capabilities. During the last two months, against the background of the severe blows suffered by the Lebanese terrorist organization, it is evident that it is much more open to the possibility of ending the war in Lebanon without making it conditional on the end of the war in Gaza. Despite official statements by the organization’s Secretary General Naim Kassem and other senior officials that they are willing to continue the “war of attrition”, they will probably agree to an agreement to end the fighting under conditions that they would not have agreed to a few weeks ago.

_OBJ