The New York Times and The Washington Post confirmed that USA authorized these limited attacks in response to the deployment of North Korean forces on the battlefield of Kursk. The objective is to dissuade the regime North Korea to deploy more forces in Russia. Furthermore, they stated that the authorization to use ATACMS against targets in other parts of Russia could be expanded in the future.
US officials also stated that with the restricted use of ATACMS is aimed generate a “specific and limited” effect on the battlefield and that will not change the course of the war.
Thus, At the moment hundreds of Russian military objectives remain outside the reach of the ATACMS in other Russian border regions.
Until now, Ukraine could only use missiles ATACMS to attack in the territory invaded by Russia. For months now, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyrequested to be able to use them to bomb targets within Russia.
Officially, the Government of USA has not confirmed the news. But this Monday, the White House assured that its strategy regarding a possible negotiation between Ukraine and Russia es bring kyiv to “the strongest possible position” and assured that it is Moscow that promotes an escalation in the conflict.
In Moscow, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskovstated that “It is evident that the outgoing administration in the United States intends to continue adding fuel to the fire and continue to cause an escalation of tension around this conflict.”
Until Monday, the Russian president Vladimir Putin He had not commented on the issue. But Peskov recalled the statement made in September by the president in Saint Petersburg, where he warned that the approval of the use of long-range missiles “It will mean that NATO countries, the United States and European countries will be at war with Russia.”
For his part, the president of the Duma of Russia, Viacheslav Volodin, warned that the authorization to kyiv “will not change the situation on the battlefield and “It will only worsen the fate and future of Ukraine.”
He added that “it will definitively destroy Russian-American relations… If this happens, then Russia will be obliged to respond. How is a matter for the Ministry of Defense. But it is clear that there will be,” he said.
Volodin He did not rule out that his country resorts to “new weapons systems that Russia has not yet used on Ukrainian territory.”
Climbing in slow motion
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According to an analysis of Institute for the Study of War (ISW), within the range of the ATACMS there are 250 military objectives located in Russia. But for now most of them cannot be attacked.
Why were ATACMS authorized for use only in Kursk? To Andrés Gómez de la Torrespecialist in Defense and Intelligence issues, there is a conviction on the part of both USA as of Russia to carry out controlled war escalations. “We continue in a context of escalations in slow motion.”
“Many years ago, in the middle of the Cold War, the United States had a strategic concept, which was the graduated response. In that scenario, limited authorization in Kursk may also limit a reaction from Russia. “We are within this concept of limited wars to avoid major escalations at the strategic level,” Gómez de la Torre noted.
The analyst added that the justification for the use of these long-range tactical missiles is framed in the presence of North Korean troops supporting the Russians in the region of Kursk. “It is about enhancing and strengthening Ukraine’s possibilities in Kursk so that in the future this place becomes a kind of negotiating instrument.”
Gómez de la Torre also has another reading for the decision of Bidenwhose government is already on its way out. He thinks that could try to tie the hands of the future government of Donald Trump“although he could easily revoke the order.”
“It also has to do with the internal political issue of the United States. Trump’s idea is to sit the parties down for a negotiation, but the authorization for the use of ATACMS could eventually get out of control,” he explained.
The threat of nuclear war
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At the end of September, Putin updated the nuclear doctrine of Russia and added more elements that would motivate a reaction from Moscow with its atomic weapons if the country’s existence is threatened.
Putin said that in the event of a massive attack with cruise missiles, planes, rockets or swarms of drones, Russia could now respond with nuclear weapons.
“In the updated version of the document, it is proposed that an aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear weapon state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear weapon state, should be considered a joint attack against the Russian Federation.”Putin said.
Gómez de la Torre considered that Old Cold War concepts are being revitalized in the current Russian, Ukrainian, and American situation.
“I think there is a conviction on the part of Moscow and Washington of what the Mutual Assured Destructionthe military and political strategy that assumes that if a nuclear-armed country attacks another nuclear-armed country, both will be destroyed. “That is to say, they know that if they enter into a nuclear confrontation, there is really no possibility of an imposition of strategic will by one on the other,” Gómez de la Torre remarked.
“Throughout this war, Russia has spoken more than once about the use of tactical nuclear weapons, not strategic ones. “We continue in the scenario of a tactical field,” he added.
What are ATACMS long-range missiles like?
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USA supplied to Ukraine the first ATACMS in autumn 2023, but only for use in Ukrainian territory. These had a limited range of up to 165 kilometers. Later, kyiv received the version that reaches up to 300 km.
El MGM-140 ATACMS it’s a long-range surface-to-surface tactical ballistic missile Designed and manufactured by American defense company Lockheed Martin.
This weapon uses a solid fuel propellant, measures approximately 4 meters in length and has a diameter of 60.96 centimeters.
It has a 226-kilogram fragmented explosion WDU-18 warhead.
According to BBC Mundo, the 300 kilometer range version has a GPS-assisted inertial navigation system.
Can be launched from an M270 MLRS multiple launch platform or the M142 High Mobility Artillery Missile System, better known as HIMARS.
The missile weighs 1,670 kilos and Its maximum speed is Mach 3.
If fired from Ukrainethe ISW estimates that the ATACMS It could hit some 250 targets inside Russia, especially military bases, weapons storage facilities and logistics centers.
According to Lockheed Martin, ATACMS They attack with great precision in all types of weather conditions.
They have been used in Iraq in 1991, during the Operation Desert Stormwhen 32 projectiles were fired from M270 MLRS rocket launchers.
And in 2003, in Operation Iraqi Freedom, the United States fired 450 missiles ATACMS.
As the CNN network notes, the manufacture of the ATACMS requires time and complex components. Lockheed Martin manufactures approximately 500 missiles per yearas stated by a company spokesperson in September of last year.
Other missiles delivered to Ukraine
Since the start of the war in February 2022, Ukraine has received HIMARS batteriesdelivered by the United States, which have a range of 80 km.
The European country also has long-range missiles awarded by France and the United Kingdom.
The French are the SCALPwith a range of 150 kilometers and which arrived in July 2023.
It can penetrate several meters into concrete and detect the cavity where its 450 kg charge will be detonated. Its great precision allows it to drill a hole into which a second missile can be inserted. Plus, you can fly without GPS.
British missiles Storm Shadow They arrived in May 2023 and have a range of 250 km.
He Storm Shadow must be launched from Sukhoi 24M aircraft.
According to the 20Minutos portal, the ATACMS They are much easier to intercept than Storm Shadow since its ballistic trajectory is predictable. On the other hand, the British missile is more precise.
The Storm Shadow features an optical seeker for terminal guidance that can see and recognize its target. Its warhead weighs 450 kilos.