An unimaginable number of casualties: a thousand days into the war in Ukraine

Ukraine and Russia are celebrating today (Tuesday) 1,000 days since the Russian army invaded Ukraine and the war between the two countries began. For more than two and a half years, the two armies have been fighting the most difficult war that the continent of Europe has known since World War II – with more than a million casualties, destruction worth hundreds of billions of dollars that will take many years to restore – and above all, great fear for the future. Just today, Russia confirmed that Ukraine attacked deep inside its territory with American missiles after Biden approved doing so. This move could lead Putin to escalate the fighting.Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections is probably the event that is expected to have more of an impact than anything else on the course of the war in Ukraine. Trump repeats time and time again his intention to bring about an end to the war as quickly as possible, but so far he has not yet presented an orderly and serious plan to do so. Despite this, both Moscow and Kyiv are already preparing for the possibility of negotiations to end the war And even bloodier than those that preceded them.

 

6/6 The Kremlin likely aims to take advantage of uncertainty about the future US policy regarding Ukraine by intensifying its reflexive control campaign against Ukraine’s European allies.

Read more in the Nov. 15 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: https://t.co/JwwqCizmHV pic.twitter.com/802X4DsaK4

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) November 16, 2024

The last month of the war appears to be a danger of making the conflict global and much bigger than the fighting between the two neighboring countries. For the first time in the war, an army of a third country is taking an active part in the war – with more than 12 thousand soldiers from North Korea now fighting alongside Russian army soldiers against Ukraine, and it is estimated that Pyongyang will send up to 100 thousand fighters in total. On the other hand, Biden’s authorization for Ukraine, two months before the end of his term, to attack with American weapons deep in Russian territory – leads Russia to raise the level of threats against NATO countries, and to choose to perhaps attack the USA through third parties (the Houthis? Iran?) .

The basic assumptions that have collapsed

On the 1000th day, it is possible to point to two false assumptions that were disproved during the war in Ukraine: the thought that Russia would defeat Ukraine within hours or days, and also the thought that the heavy economic and political pressure on Russia would cause it to lose the war.

 

 

 

Already in the first hours of the invasion, on Thursday February 24, 2022, there were many who rushed to eulogize Ukraine and estimated that Vladimir Putin and his army would conquer Kyiv within three days, and then thought that it might happen within three weeks. Many who thought that the days of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky were numbered were also deceived – and the Ukrainian president continues to lead his country even today.

 

 

 

The very heavy economic and political pressure imposed by the USA and most Western countries (not Israel) on Russia did not achieve its goal of stopping Putin’s brutal war machine. Russia’s defense industries are currently working at a pace not seen there for years, even in the days without sanctions, and many countries that are not The definition of “Western” helps Russia to bypass them. Russia’s economy also registers good and surprising data, and to its credit Moscow will be said to be constantly managing to gain a foothold in new markets.

Russia’s main advantage and progress on the battlefield

As the war went on and on, Russia’s great and central advantage over Ukraine became more prominent: manpower. Even today, in the war in Ukraine alone, without taking into account the forces scattered along the country’s long borders, Russia is using a force of about 700-600 thousand soldiers. Over the past six months, Russia has been losing more than 30,000 soldiers killed and wounded every month, and continues to recruit a similar number accordingly. In Ukraine, it is much more difficult to recruit soldiers, even though the casualty rate is much lower.

 

 

 

Russia’s considerable advantage in manpower allows it to register many achievements on the battlefield in recent months, while occupying many areas and settlements in the Donbas region. In Moscow, they understand very well that after nearly three years, the war is likely to come to an end due to political pressure, especially from Trump’s USA. Because of this, the Russian army has greatly increased the pressure and is trying to improve its positions for the negotiations, while taking advantage of the great attrition in the ranks of the Ukrainian army.

The disaster is in numbers

Since the outbreak of the war, about a million soldiers have been killed and significantly injured, on both sides, on the battlefield in Ukraine. The Russians suffered much heavier losses – American officials who spoke to the New York Times last month estimated that 115,000 Russian fighters had been killed and 500,000 wounded and missing since the beginning of the war. It was also reported that the Ukrainians are hiding the number of their losses well, and that the US estimates that it is slightly more than half of the Russian losses. The Wall Street Journal reported that a Ukrainian source provided a higher estimate for the number of Ukrainian losses – 80 thousand dead and about 400 thousand wounded.

 

 

 

Although the fighting has been going on for 1,000 days, it is not on the decline. The West estimated that September was the bloodiest month for Russia since the outbreak of the war with 1,200 casualties per day – a rate of more than 30,000 deaths per month.

The damage was not only caused on the battlefield, and the Ukrainian home front also suffered tremendous damage. Since the outbreak of the war, approximately 40,000 Ukrainian citizens have been affected – 12,162 killed and 26,919 injured, according to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. Approximately 6.8 million Ukrainians fled the country and became refugees, the vast majority of them moved to Western Europe. Another 4 million became displaced within Ukraine.

According to UN data, about 14.6 million Ukrainian citizens need urgent humanitarian aid, about 36% of the country’s population. About 660 health institutions and 1,500 educational institutions have been damaged or destroyed on the territory of Ukraine since the outbreak of the war.

where does it go

Trump has made it clear many times that he is determined to end the war, perhaps even before he returns to the White House. The new-old president of the USA announced that he opposes the continued transfer of military aid from the USA to Ukraine, which is estimated at about 61 billion dollars – but only in the form of a loan.

 

 

 

In Ukraine, they understand very well that without the continuation of US security assistance – they cannot continue to fight Russia for a long time, let alone continue to protect their citizens. As mentioned, Trump has not yet presented a clear and orderly plan to end the war, but according to various reports, he is expected to impose on Ukraine to agree to the end of the war on the current line of contact, that is – that Putin’s Russia will maintain its control of nearly 20% of the territory of the sovereign state of Ukraine on the eve of the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by Russia in 2014.

In addition to the territory that Russia has captured from Ukraine and is expected to remain in its hands – Ukraine may have to postpone for many years its request to join NATO – a move that in any case is expected in the near future to encounter resistance from many countries, starting with Viktor Orban’s Hungary and Robert Pizzo’s Slovakia that express strong support for Russia and Putin, And to countries like Germany and France who are very afraid of a direct military conflict with Russia.

 

 

 

With the beginning of the third winter in the war – Russia returns to use one of its deadliest weapons against Ukraine: severe damage to the energy facilities and the “freezing” of the citizens in the Ukrainian winter. This week, Russia carried out one of its deadliest attacks in recent months in the hinterland of Ukraine, with the launch of more than 200 missiles and UAVs. Over the course of long weeks and months – you can count on a few fingers the quiet nights that the citizens of Ukraine had, who face UAV attacks every night Iranians on their cities and homes.

 

 

 

Despite the bells of “peace” being heard in the USA, even now there is no clear end to the war, and it is clear that at least thousands and maybe even tens of thousands more are expected to die in the difficult war, which shook Europe and the entire world. This war also affects the citizens of Israel, as it greatly strengthened the Relations between Russia and Iran – mainly in the security field. Trump’s calls for “peace” must not be exaggerated, since for many in Ukraine and Europe it means a time of rest and preparation For Putin and Russia for the continuation of the war in the coming years.