Russia’s new missile pushes the Ukraine conflict closer to the threshold of nuclear war

President Vladimir Putin announced on the evening of November 21 that the Russian military had conducted a coordinated attack, using medium-range ballistic missiles carrying Oreshnik hypersonic warheads, targeting the Southern Machine Manufacturing Factory (Yuzhmash). , one of Ukraine’s largest and most famous defense industrial complexes, located in the central city of Dnipro.

Mr. Putin affirmed that Oreshnik is one of Russia’s newest medium-range missile systems, which can rush to the target at a maximum speed of 10,800 km/h, 10 times faster than sound.

“Existing defense systems globally, including the shield deployed by the US in Europe, cannot block this type of warhead,” Mr. Putin said.

According to the Kremlin boss, this move is in response to Ukraine using American ATACMS missiles and British-made Storm Shadow to attack Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk provinces previously.

Russia’s attack with a completely new ballistic weapon shocked world public opinion, because the Ukrainian Air Force initially announced that this was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of carrying nuclear warheads. , a type of weapon originally designed to attack strategic targets, often in wars between superpowers.

Experts say this new missile launch clearly conveyed President Putin’s message: If Western countries continue to provide long-range weapons to Ukraine to attack Russian territory, the conflict is at risk. The situation is out of control and the Kremlin could completely order an attack on the US or a certain NATO member.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova even declared the missile defense base that the US had just inaugurated in the town of Redzikowo, northern Poland, as a “priority target”.

Observers believe that this scenario could push the Ukraine conflict from a war between two countries into a destructive nuclear war between superpowers.

According to assessments from some Western military analysts, Oreshnik is a medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads, with a theoretical range of less than 5,500 km. This range is enough to reach Europe when launched in southwestern Russia, but not enough to reach the United States.

Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh confirmed that the Russian missile launched was a new medium-range missile, tested based on the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

“This is a new type of weapon being deployed on the battlefield, so that’s definitely worrying,” Singh said, noting the missile can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. However, the Russian missile launched at the factory in Dnipro only carried conventional warheads.

President Putin frequently uses warnings about nuclear weapons as a way to deter the West. But launching a medium-range missile like the Oreshnik against Ukraine has escalated tensions to another level, observers said.

Since the Ukraine conflict broke out in February 2022 and Western allies began providing weapons and other support to Kiev afterward, both Russia and the West have tried to avoid a direct confrontation. which all sides agree risks leading to catastrophic military conflict, possibly World War III.

But as hostilities enter their third year, the barriers to such a confrontation are faltering more than ever.

“This is clearly an escalatory move,” commented Tatiana Stanovaya, senior expert at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center. “I truly believe the situation is very dangerous.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the missile strike on Dnipro “further proof that Russia does not want peace”, while the Kremlin accused Kiev and the West of “deliberately trying to prolong the war”.

Almost all targets within Ukraine are within range of the conventional weapons that Moscow has regularly deployed throughout the conflict. But this time, Russia decided to launch a longer-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, which observers considered “very remarkable”.

According to Fabian Rene Hoffmann, a weapons expert at the University of Oslo, Norway, “what Russia wants to say today is ‘look, last night’s attack did not carry a nuclear warhead, but if the enemy continues Keep doing what you’re doing, the next attack might be different'”.

Agreeing with the above statement, an anonymous US military expert assessed that the real reason for Russia’s use of medium-range ballistic missiles is to amplify the “on the brink of nuclear war” mentality, thereby spread fear to Ukraine and its allies.

Matthew Savill, director of military science at the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said that Russia’s launch of the new missile has important symbolic meaning, especially if placed in the context of it taking place after when Russia revised its nuclear doctrine, which many believed lowered the threshold for activating this weapon.

He said this is a reminder that Russia has a very large nuclear arsenal with many different types of missiles and is ready to develop more.

Karolina Hird, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, said Russia’s motivation for the launch was not limited to results on the battlefield. “It is also aimed at achieving informational effects to influence decision-makers in the West and Ukraine,” she said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said that according to procedure, Russia is not required to notify the US in advance of the missile launch because Oreshnik is not an intercontinental missile. However, Russia sent an automatic notification to the US 30 minutes before the missile fired, TASS news agency quoted him as saying.

The US Department of Defense confirmed they received that warning.

According to Tom Karako, director of the missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, although other missiles Russia has launched into Ukraine can also carry nuclear warheads, such as the Iskander. or Kh-101, what makes this new medium-range missile alarming, beyond its range, is its ability to carry multiple nuclear warheads during reentry.

It makes intercepting them difficult, if not nearly impossible. Rockets are also large and can fly farther, higher and faster, reaching supersonic speeds.

It is “a nuclear warning for both Ukraine and Europe”, Karako emphasized. “That’s a pretty sharp signal.”

But according to Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, based in the US, because Russia regularly uses missiles capable of carrying other nuclear warheads to attack Ukraine, their launch of a new missile This should not be exaggerated.

“But at the same time, we have also entered a new and much more dangerous phase of the fighting, in which both sides seem to believe that they need to escalate further,” he noted.