The Democratic Party is growing, the M5s is stable. The echo of the Regional elections on political polls

10 days after the elections in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria which saw the victory of the centre-left and which dented the “aura of invincibility” of the centre-right, the effects are also starting to be seen on the polls. In particular, this week the PD grows by almost half a point in our Supermedia (+0.4%), benefiting from a small “bandwagon” effect which does not seem to affect – at least for the moment – the other opposition parties. On the contrary, Fratelli d’Italia loses half a point, despite clearly remaining the first partyhere too without the allies (in this case centre-right) experiencing any particular backlash.

Speaking of Lega and Forza Italia: it may be useful to point out that the few decimals that divide these two parties – for months now – in our Supermedia, could help explain the now continuous tensions between Salvini’s party and Tajani’sfrom the summer discussion on the ius scholae to the sensational cross-rejections on the amendments to the budget law in recent days. The one who doesn’t seem to be affected at all by the news of this period is the 5 Star Movement, which even today reports an identical figure to that of the last few weeks (we have now reached the fourth consecutive year) and that is 11.4%.

We will soon see how the developments of the recent “refounding” convention of the M5S (“Nova”) could impact the consensus on the Movement founded by Beppe Grillo and today chaired by Giuseppe Conte. But first let’s see what Italians think of the imminent general strike called by CGIL, CISL and UIL. According to a SWG survey, only a third of Italians consider this choice to be right, while 35% are more skeptical considering the budget law “criticizable” and only 13% consider the strike to be wrong since the budget law would be effective (curiously, almost half of the voters of the majority parties are skeptical, while less than a third defend the effectiveness of the budget law).

#Unions – 1 in 3 agree with the general strike. In the CDX the strike is not supported but the majority finds the budget law objectionable pic.twitter.com/YFrmUd5Q9K

— SWG (@swg_research)
November 19, 2024

It may be that the success (or, on the contrary, failure) of this new trade union mobilization will also influence the way in which Italians see these organizations: again according to SWG, only 24% of citizens (less than one in four) express trust towards the unions. Instead, let’s see how the M5S demonstration that took place last weekend was interpreted by Italians, and which ended with Beppe Grillo’s cancellation of the votes that had essentially plebiscite the proposals to re-establish the statute promoted by Giuseppe Conte . The votes will therefore have to be repeated: but in the meantime the Euromedia institute has already taken a snapshot of the reactions aroused by this demonstration. According to this survey, over 62% of Italians think that the M5S will now become a traditional party, a prevalent opinion even among the Movement’s voters themselves; Furthermore, 51% of those interviewed predict that Conte’s “new” M5S will be an organic ally of the PD, and only 22% believe the declarations of “autonomy” claimed by the former prime minister. In any case, now the absolute majority of Italians – whether they are M5S voters or not – consider the M5S a left or centre-left force, and only a minority (less than 18%, and 29% of those who vote M5S) think that it can still be classified as a non-aligned movement.

NOTE: The YouTrend/Agi Supermedia is a weighted average of national polls on voting intentions. Today’s weighting, which includes surveys carried out from November 14th to October 27th, was carried out on November 28th based on the sample size, the date of completion and the data collection method. The surveys considered were carried out by the institutes EMG (publication date: 22 November), Euromedia (26 November), Ixè (20 November), Quorum (18 November), SWG (18 and 26 November), and Tecnè (16 and 23 November). The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it