Marco Rubio and Elon Musk will be challenges for Brazilian diplomacy

The appointment of American senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and billionaire Elon Musk to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) in the future government of Donald Trump, in the USA, should have significant impacts on Brazil, especially on issues related to Venezuela and the Federal Supreme Court (STF). While Rubio can pressure Itamaraty to adopt a tougher stance against the Maduro regime, Musk tends to intensify clashes with the Brazilian Supreme Court, increasing tensions for the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

The initial expectation is that Rubio will focus his efforts on confronting China and leading negotiations on the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East. However, international policy analysts estimate that the Republican senator will also devote significant attention to Latin America, driven by his firm stance against dictatorships and left-wing governments in the region.

In Congress, Rubio gained notoriety for defending the application of more sanctions against Cuba and Venezuela. In the case of the Caribbean country, he was a central figure in the application of 243 measures to reinforce the American embargo during Trump’s first term. He is critical of the dictator Nicolás Maduro, of Venezuela, and has also criticized the Brazilian president by stating that Lula is an “extreme left leader who covers up the criminal nature of Maduro’s narco-regime”.

The refusal of Brazilian diplomacy to criticize the Venezuelan regime more harshly is seen as an element that could encourage the United States to concentrate actions against Maduro. As Venezuela is part of Brazil’s sphere of influence, Maduro was seen by the current American president, Joe Biden, as a responsibility of the Brazilian government. With the change in American management, the expectation is that Itamaraty will be pressured to take a more forceful position.

For political scientist Adriano Cerqueira, professor at Ibmec in Belo Horizonte, the arrival of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State of the United States could bring significant changes in the relationship with Brazil, especially with regard to issues of freedom and human rights. . He believes that Rubio will adopt a more incisive stance against controversial measures by the Brazilian government and decisions by the STF. The senator was one of the US politicians who criticized Minister Alexandre de Moraes for suspending X and blocking accounts and assets of Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite division, in Brazil.

“Marco Rubio will take a more incisive turn in American politics, especially on issues related to censorship and restriction of freedoms in Brazil. Actions such as blocking profiles on social networks, censoring journalistic articles and attempts to regulate the media will be targets of strong pressure from the new Secretary of State”, says Cerqueira. He recalls that, even as a senator, Rubio already defended measures such as canceling visas for STF ministers.

The analyst also highlights the contrast between the ideological agendas of the Lula government and the new American government, led by Donald Trump. “Brazil’s support for left-wing regimes in Latin America, as well as its proximity to countries such as Iran, China and Russia, will be a point of friction. Marco Rubio, together with Trump, should intensify the commercial and diplomatic confrontation with China and seek greater rapprochement with Israel and Saudi Arabia, which is in direct conflict with the current orientation of the Lula government”, he adds.

Government will have to deal with dispute between Musk and Rubio against STF

If the Palácio do Planalto is already working in the National Congress to block anti-STF agendas, the Lula government will face the international pressure that Elon Musk and Marco Rubio can exert against the Brazilian Supreme Court. In the case of the owner of “X”, his position at the head of the Government Efficiency Department will give the dispute with Minister Alexandre de Moraes an official and governmental character.

“These conflicts revealed an alignment between the Brazilian Executive and the Supreme Court, especially in relation to censorship and regulatory measures. Musk was directly impacted by these decisions, but now, with his proximity to Trump, he will have more influence on American foreign policy “, analyzes Elton Gomes, from the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI).

The professor warns that Musk should pressure the American government to adopt a stricter stance against countries that implement restrictions on technology platforms, which could directly impact Brazil, already criticized for its approach to freedom of expression.

An incident involving Janja, the first lady of Brazil, during the Cria G20 event, which took place before the G20 leaders’ summit in November, could worsen tensions. In his participation, Janja made a controversial statement to the tycoon: “I’m not afraid of you. Even, fuck you, Elon Musk.” In response, Musk quipped: “They’re going to lose the next election.”

Furthermore, Rubio, future US Secretary of State, will receive a request from his Republican colleagues to suspend the US visas of STF ministers due to the blocking of the “X”. The request, signed in September by deputies María Elvira Salazar, Carlos A. Giménez, Rich McCormick and Chris Smith, as well as senator Rick Scott, was sent to the current Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, but did not proceed under the Biden administration.

Rubio also directly criticized Moraes’ actions. “The decision to ban X is yet another maneuver by Judge Alexandre de Moraes to undermine basic freedoms. From fining individuals and private entities that seek information on social media platform. In the name of basic freedoms and our bilateral relationship, Brazil must rectify this authoritarian movement,” Rubio wrote on his official website.

Commenting on the scenario, Elton Gomes highlights that Rubio will be able to strengthen ties between the Brazilian opposition and Republican congressmen, now in control of the American House and Senate.

“This context creates a favorable environment for sanctions aimed at STF ministers, politicians and even public security agents, depending on Brazil’s stance on issues such as digital censorship and its rapprochement with the Sino-Russian bloc”, says Gomes.