The US plan to stop the war between Ukraine and Russia seems tailor-made for Vladimir Putin. The man chosen by President-elect Donald Trump to manage US policies in Russia and Ukraine has a very specific idea to stop the conflict that has been ongoing for over 1000 days.
Kellogg’s plan
Former general Keith Kellogg was among the most critical of the management of outgoing president Joe Biden, who allegedly contributed to triggering an ‘avoidable crisis’, then providing support to Kiev that was inadequate in time and manner. The nomination cannot make Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky smile too muchgiven that Kellogg’s plan requires Kiev to renounce several key points of the Ukrainian ‘plan for victory’ – starting with entry into NATO – and also suggests a more dialogue approach that does not ‘demonize’ Putin.
Kellogg, Trump’s former national security adviser, laid out his peace plan for Ukraine in an article for the political institute America First, dating back to last April and reported by CNN. The former general called it “an avoidable crisis that, due to the Biden administration’s incompetent policies, has entangled America in an endless war.”
The former general is very critical of the outgoing administration, whose support in Kiev is judged to be too weak and late. On the other hand, Kellogg believes that Trump’s decision to provide the first aid to Ukraine in 2018 conveyed the strength needed to face Putin. Furthermore, the more ‘communicative’ tone of the president-elect towards the Kremlin leader, who is not demonized unlike what Biden did, could make a diplomatic solution easier.
Biden’s mistakes
Kellogg argues that more weapons should have been supplied before the Russian invasion and immediately after, in order to facilitate a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield. Lacking this prerequisite, he changed his position and began to call for a ‘ceasefire’ that would freeze the fronts, forcing both sides to sit at the negotiating table. So far it doesn’t seem to differ much from what President Zelensky claimed in his ‘victory plan’, but the second part of the project could be the most alarming for Kiev.
For the former advisor, the United States does not need to be involved in another conflict, as its weapons stockpiles have been affected by aid to Ukraine, leaving the country potentially exposed in a possible conflict with China over Taiwan. In his opinion, Ukraine’s membership in NATO should be suspended indefinitely“in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace agreement with security guarantees.” Kellogg’s plan stipulates that it should become “a formal policy of the United States to seek a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement.”
Stop the war: what happens
Future US aid will be contingent on Ukraine negotiating with Russia, and Washington will arm Kiev to the extent it can defend itself and stop any further Russian advances before and after any peace agreement. The fronts would be frozen by a ceasefire and a demilitarized zone would be imposed.
If it agreed, Russia would get limited sanctions reliefwhich would become complete only after the signing of a peace agreement satisfactory for Ukraine. Zelensky would not be asked to give up the recovery of the occupied territories, but would have to agree to pursue it only through diplomacy.
For Kellogg, it is necessary to return to an ‘America First’ approach in foreign policy. “Biden has replaced Trump’s approach with a liberal internationalist approach that promotes Western values, human rights and democracy,” he wrote. “This is a rather sad basis from which to build a compromise on European security.”
Finally, critics of continued aid to Ukraine – among whom he appears to include himself – are “concerned that America’s vital strategic interests are at stake in the Ukrainian war, the potential involvement of US military forces and that America is engaged in a proxy war with Russia that could escalate into a nuclear conflict.”