The war plunges Ukraine into an electoral limbo, for now without wear and tear for Zelensky

When the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, took office on May 20, 2019, he did so for a period of five years. More than five years have passed and the authorities are not currently contemplating holding new elections, in a kind of limbo that Russia is trying to agitate in its favor but that does not seem to wear down Zelensky for now.

Zelensky won the second round of the elections on April 21, 2019 after obtaining more than 73 percent of the votes, with a solid advantage over his rival, the then president, Petro Poroshenko. He then began a mandate in which he promised to undertake thorough reforms, among other issues to combat corruption, but which ended marked by war.

The president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, ordered his troops to invade Ukraine during the early hours of February 24, 2022 and the offensive remains open today, with no solution in sight. Zelensky declared martial law in the face of this large-scale invasion and, given the chaos, no new presidential term began on May 20 of this year.

The Ukrainian Constitution establishes in its article 103 that the presidential term lasts five years, but at the same time it reflects in article 108 that a head of state must continue to serve as such until the proclamation of his successor, something that has not occurred. The Magna Carta does not expressly veto the calling of elections in the event of martial law, an extreme that the electoral law does prohibit, according to a recent analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Zelensky has largely avoided the debate, under the premise that focusing efforts on it means fueling Russian propaganda. Not in vain, Putin usually includes in his speeches allusions to the supposed illegitimacy of the current “regime” in kyiv, a tactic that is not new within the Kremlin’s strategy to sow doubts about its political rivals.

As CIDOB senior associate researcher Carmen Claudín points out, “Russia takes advantage of the contradictions that exist in any social dynamic when it suits it” and Ukraine is no exception, despite the fact that in this case she considers that Moscow is not especially indicated to give “lessons” taking into account that everything is “the fault of a war that they have caused.”

Claudín does not believe that Zelensky’s legitimacy is now “at risk” and highlights the fact that there is a “public debate” in relation to the elections, typical of a “democratic life.” In any case, no alternative candidates have emerged, nor are there movements from other elected officials who could claim to be interim presidents, such as the head of the Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk.

Society, furthermore, does not seem to question the president’s decision to postpone ‘sine die’ the appointment with the polls. Almost seven out of ten Ukrainians advocate continuing as they are until martial law is lifted and 53 percent want Zelensky to run again if there are elections, according to a survey released in February by the International Institute of Sociology. from kyiv.

LOGISTICAL AND POLITICAL PROBLEMS

Comín points out in statements to Europa Press that holding a vote has some pros, such as “reinforcing the political options” that win, but also numerous cons. “In a country in a state of war like Ukraine, it is very difficult to carry out fully democratic elections,” he adds.

In this sense, it alludes to logistical terms such as the fact that there are millions of people outside their homes or that in the territories occupied by Russia it is directly “impossible” to consider putting up ballot boxes. For the electoral process to develop with guarantees, adds the CIDOB expert, it is necessary to aspire to “really” know what “the entire population” thinks.

“In a situation of open war, common sense must prevail,” understanding as such that in Ukraine it is necessary to adapt to the circumstances while waiting for what may come in the coming months. An immediate future that seems marked by the return of magnate Donald Trump to the White House, an “absolutely unpredictable” figure who “does not promise anything good” for Ukrainians, according to Comín.