Many observers have noticed how, in the same weeks in which the governments of historically very stable countries such as France and Germany enter into crisis, Italy is characterized on the contrary by extreme political stability, a decidedly unusual trait for our country . Stability not only on an institutional level, but also on that of consensus, as certified by our Supermedia for many months now.
This week too, in fact, we are not witnessing any particular “revolutions”, but rather an adjustment – expected and predictable – in favor of the opposition forces, somewhat galvanized by the double victory at the Regionals in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria a few weeks ago. In particular, the Democratic Party confirms itself above 23%While Fratelli d’Italia falls just below 29%; in general, all the majority parties are losing ground slightly, even if this does not affect the predominance of the centre-right coalition, which to date overall is just below 48% of the votes. A level that would almost be equalized only by the sum of all the oppositions in a single coalition, a goal which, if not unrealistic, is decidedly not immediate.
There are also positive signs for the 5 Star Movement, probably due to the recent re-foundation event which has put it back at center stage – for better or for worse. However, the good state of form of the PD and M5S seems to come at the expense of the somewhat “close” parties: on the one hand the Green-Left Alliance, on the other Carlo Calenda’s Action, which achieved a new negative record (2.4 %). But in the opposition camp (we will see how large it is), the party at center stage in this period is certainly the 5 Star Movement. Already in recent weeks we have seen how, for some time now, the clear majority of the M5S base recognizes itself more in the new leader Giuseppe Conte than in the founder Beppe Grillo. The new research released in recent days also seems to certify the transition towards a different organization of the political structure of the M5S.
According to the latest SWG survey, the vast majority of voters (including from the M5S) agree that this re-foundation (inspired and “led” by Conte, according to many) means the political decline of Beppe Grillo. But if Italians on the whole mostly give a negative interpretation of this transition (66% think that the M5S has now become Conte’s personal party), among the current voters of the Movement positive interpretations and hopes prevail, for example the demonstration of an ability to self-reform (82%).
#Parties – 5 Star Movement: the changes to the statute, led from above by Conte, represent Grillo’s political decline pic.twitter.com/2gNLu9yS7E
— SWG (@swg_research)
December 3, 2024
Also with regards to the political self-positioning of the Movement’s voters, recent data are very interesting: according to Renato Mannheimer’s Eumetra institute, almost 6 out of 10 M5S voters define themselves as left-wing or centre-left (consistently with the new “progressive” positioning proposed by Conte) and only 20% do not fit in; this is an important innovation compared to the past, when the Movement was the political choice par excellence precisely for the so-called “non-placed” i.e. those voters who defined themselves as neither right nor left – and in fact this was precisely the “not -original identity of the Movement founded by Grillo. With the video published a few days ago, the former leader and founder of the M5S declared his creation “dead”, hinting at the hypothesis of a new political entity. But this hypothesis, say the first investigations, would not have much success: according to a survey by Antonio Noto, in the event of a split, 65% of the current M5S voters would continue to vote for the party led by Conte, and only 28% would choose the Grillo’s new movement (translated into percentages, it would mean around 3% of the total voters).
NOTE: The YouTrend/Agi Supermedia is a weighted average of national polls on voting intentions. Today’s weighting, which includes surveys carried out from November 14th to October 27th, was carried out on November 28th based on the sample size, the date of completion and the data collection method. The surveys considered were carried out by the institutes EMG (publication date: 22 November), Euromedia (26 November), Ixè (20 November), Quorum (18 November), SWG (18 and 26 November), and Tecnè (16 and 23 November). The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it