Russia’s difficult situation when rebels arise in Syria

Because of the Ukraine conflict, Russia cannot fully help the Syrian government fend off rebels, but it also cannot abandon its strategic ally in the Middle East.

Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels, formerly al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria, and allied groups on November 29 launched an offensive campaign to take control of Aleppo. , Syria’s second largest city, and captured many surrounding areas.

By December 5, the Syrian army continued to withdraw from Hama, the country’s fourth largest city, under pressure from rebel attacks in many directions. Rebels are approaching Homs, the country’s third largest city, from the north, while another group in the south is trying to surround the capital Damascus.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin at a press conference in Astana, Kazakhstan, November 28. Image: Reuters

The HTS leader declared that the rebels’ goal is to overthrow the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Rebel fighters are now only about 10 km from central Damascus.

Facing the risk of collapse, President Assad’s government will likely have to rely on its Russian ally to stop the rebels’ advance.

However, “Russia is no longer in a position to support the Assad government like it did 10 years ago,” commented Ruslan Suleimanov, a Russian researcher at ADA University in Baku, Azerbaijan.

According to him, although Russia still conducts air strikes in support of Syrian government forces, this is not enough to stop HTS.

After the Syrian government army spent four years fighting rebels to capture Aleppo, it was the Russian army that helped President Assad retake the city at the end of 2016.

The main difference in the current situation compared to the old Aleppo battle is that Russia is now more concerned with the Ukraine conflict that has lasted for nearly three years.

“Obviously, Russia’s presence in Syria began to gradually decrease from there,” Suleimanov said.

But in reality, Russian military forces in Syria have always been relatively small. In 2015, when Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to strengthen President Assad’s military power after four years of civil war, he mainly deployed air force to Syria.

This number is unlikely to increase further. In addition, Russia at that time also mobilized a small number of mercenaries, like Wagner, to support the Syrian government. They participated in land battles more often than Russian regular soldiers.

However, today, these fighters are almost absent in Syria because they have been deployed to Ukraine.

“Russia’s strategy is to support Syrian, Iranian and Shiite militias in fighting and Russian forces provide aerial fire support, not the other way around,” US analysts Michael Kofman and Matthew Rojansky wrote in a Research article for the US Military University Press in 2018.

Meanwhile, Iran and allied armed forces such as Hezbollah are currently significantly weakened by the conflict with Israel. Hezbollah is the main ground force supporting the Syrian government army during more than 10 years of civil war.

HTS and its allied groups seem to realize this is an unmissable opportunity to launch a decisive offensive campaign.

It remains unclear whether Russia can fill the gap in Syrian ground forces.

“But it will be very difficult to increase aid to President Assad without weakening the Russian military in Ukraine,” said Pavel Luzin, an expert on the Russian armed forces.

 

Rebel fighters in Hama city, Syria, on December 6. Image: AFP

After the Ukraine conflict broke out in February 2022, some information said that Russia withdrew fighter jets from Syria and the S-300 air defense missile system here was transferred to a port near Crimea.

Russian soldiers stationed in Syria are concentrated in large bases, instead of guarding small outposts. The transfer of experienced mercenary forces to Ukraine also significantly weakens Russia’s position in the region, according to observers.

Suleimanov said that although the Kremlin still has a small number of mercenaries in Syria, “these people do not participate in combat missions but only perform other tasks, such as monitoring oil production facilities.”

But while the military campaign in Ukraine remains Russia’s priority, “President Putin will certainly not abandon the Assad regime,” Suleimanov noted.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced on December 7 that Moscow would fight HTS with all possible measures. “We will support the legitimate government in Syria, and promote the resumption of negotiations with the opposition,” Mr. Lavrov said.

Russia has two important bases under threat: the naval base in Tartus, which ensures access to the Mediterranean, and the Hmeimim air base, which helps Russian troops deploy across the entire region.

Syria also plays an important role for the Kremlin in maintaining its image as a superpower, according to experts. After the West’s failed intervention efforts in Iraq and Libya, Russia wanted to portray itself as a stabilizing factor in the region and has succeeded in positioning itself as a pillar in the Middle East.

Russian air strikes in Syria are being stepped up, targeting rebel attacks.

According to Rybar, a pro-Kremlin Telegram channel with 1.3 million followers, General Alexander Chaiko, who once commanded the Russian army in Syria, has been transferred back to the country.

Besides, Moscow also seeks to contact other relevant powers, above all Türkiye, the country that is benefiting the most from the rise of the rebels. HTS is supported by the National Liberation Front, a coalition of rebel groups backed by Türkiye.

 

Some major cities in Syria. Graphics: AFP

President Putin spoke with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan by phone and representatives of Russia, Iran and Türkiye plan to meet next weekend.

“These will be very difficult, tiring negotiations for Russia, which has devoted a lot of resources to Ukraine,” Suleimanov said. “If Russia wants to protect the Assad regime, it will have to share less resources with the Middle East and this is certainly not an easy decision.”

By Editor

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