Turkey is emerging as the great winner of the crisis in Syria, according to the analysis of Dr. Chai Eitan Cohen Yanrojak from the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University for Ma’ariv newspaper. “Erdogan today sees himself as the great winner of this war,” states Dr. Cohen Yanrojak , and explains that “he simply took advantage of both the war in Ukraine and our war in Gaza and simply bore all the fruits.”
Turkish support for the rebels was crucial to their survival. “Everyone knows that if we talk about the rebels today, their existence is actually thanks to Turkey. Because if Turkey did not support them, they would have been defeated a long time ago,” emphasizes the expert. Especially interesting is the relationship between Turkey and Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. “There is some kind of close relationship with Abu Muhammad al-Jolani who must now, must have had these relations with the Turkish intelligence organization for many years,” the expert points out.
According to him, “I think that if and when al-Jolani gets some kind of official position in the Syrian government, then this relationship will probably be upgraded to the level of the foreign minister and everything will become legitimate. So you can say that Tahrir al-Sham will undergo some kind of legalization from what we are impressed with. Also In this way, they are not currently behaving like a terrorist organization, but they are behaving now, at a level we are impressed by, as a type of government that is replacing the government.”
A major achievement for Turkey is the opportunity to act against the Kurdish presence in Syria through the rebels. “Now Turkey is just celebrating and it has some good reasons here. Because of the fact that it gave its support to the rebels, so now it thinks that the rebels should also reward it. How can they reward it? Of course by using force against the Kurdish entity along the entire Turkish-Syrian border “, says the expert, “Last week we saw that the rebels attacked the Kurdish enclave and they actually succeeded in conquering it. Now I have no doubt that they are going to act against the presence Kurdish in the region of the west bank of the Euphrates River”.
The Turks especially do not want any Kurdish presence on the west bank of the river. “In addition, The next step will of course be to use force against the Kurds along the entire Turkey-Syria border and remove them from there. This is actually, one could say, Erdogan’s biggest goal“, explains Dr. Cohen Yanrojak.
This strategy will also allow Turkey to avoid direct international pressure: “When Turkey tried to act against the Kurds on its own, then Donald Trump stopped them and there was unprecedented international pressure. But if now the rebels have become a government and if they use force against the Kurds, then it is actually within the framework of the Syrian issue the internal, that no one seems to be able to blame Turkey.”
Along with the security aspect, Turkey seeks to fill the void created by pushing Iran. “Due to the fact that Iran was expelled from Syria, I have no doubt that Erdogan will try to function as the supreme patron of the new Syria,” the expert estimates. “They are probably going to use this card against the new Syrian government and make it more subservient to Turkey.”
The Turkish move also reflects deep historical ambitions: “If before we talked about Shiite Iran, now is the time to talk about Sunni Turkey. Erdogan has never detached himself from history and wanted to restore recognition to its past and restore the dominance, the supremacy of the Sunnis to the Syrian region.” According to the expert, “he did succeed in simply defeating the Shiite italicized Alawites.”
As for the issue of the Syrian refugees in Turkey, the expert estimates that “the standard of living in Turkey is much higher than the standard of living in Syria. I think that those who are already in western Turkey, I have no doubt that they will not return to Syria. But those who are in central Anatolia or in southeastern Turkey, maybe to go back to Syria.”
As for the territorial future of Syria, Turkey is interested in maintaining its integrity: “Turkey wants to preserve its territorial integrity. They don’t like any drastic changes of this kind, because they think that it could be a bad example to follow here… It could lead to the disintegration of Iran, such a disintegration in Iran could cause a domino effect in Turkey.”
The meaning for Israel is clear: “Israel actually needs to prepare for the new Syria, which will be under the heavy influence of Turkey and no longer of Iran,” concludes Dr. Cohen Yanrojak.