The very rapid evolution of events in Syria confirms the possibility of a turning point in the war in Ukraine which has already been under discussion for several weeks. What links the two crises in a scenario of instability that is now global is not only Russia’s role in both. But also the latest utterances of the American President-elect Donald Trump which seem to propose to Moscow if not an exchange, at least a basis on which to open negotiations. Because of their involvement in Ukraine, Russians like Assad are being forced out of Syria “and it may be the best thing that can happen to them,” Trump wrote, assuring that “the United States has nothing to do with Syria “. “It’s not our fight.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained today that “it is too early to say” what the future of the two military bases used by Russia in Tartus and Hmeimim could be. A future which, he added, “will be the subject of discussion with whoever is in power in Damascus”. But the investment that has been allocated by Moscow to these infrastructures, at an economic, military and geopolitical level, is too high for such an accommodating renunciation by the Kremlin – only a few dozen Russian air raids supported the Syrian forces in retreat. Moscow seems to have quickly accepted the fall of its ally Bashar Assad.
Tartus, Russia’s only warm water outlet, was leased in 2017 with a 49-year contract, and renovated with an investment of $500 million. Hmeimim described as “a state within a state”, or “Al-Madinah Al-Munawwarah” (Medina the enlightened) or “White House” for the lighting always on, among other things at the expense of the Syrians, the largest Russian military base abroad, it hosts 20 thousand Russian soldiers. In this case, the renovation and maintenance has cost more than five billion dollars, since 2016, the year after the start of the intervention of Russian forces in support of Assad, who settled in what was then a small airport , in support of Assad (Novaya Gazeta Europe calculated this).
Hundreds of military planes take off from the base in the province of Latakia every day (457, the independent Russian newspaper wrote last year). Around the base there are checkpoints and Moscow intelligence posts. The first agreement for the indefinite use of Hmeimim between Moscow and Damascus dates back to August 2015, an agreement included in the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation between Moscow and Damascus signed in 1980. Two years later, a new contract was signed long-term lease for 49 years, to be automatically extended for another 25.
The Hmeimim base which is used for operations in Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic and to transport mercenaries destined for the front in Ukraine.
The words of the last hours of the American President-elect Donald Trump which suggest the possibility, if not yet of a large-scale exchange between the Syrian and Ukrainian dossiers, at least a return to negotiations between great powers, guardians of the world order. In Ukraine “there must be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations must begin. Too many lives have been wasted so unnecessarily, too many families destroyed. And if it continues to go on, it can turn into something even bigger and more serious,” he wrote Trump in a post on Truth. “I know Vladimir well. This is the time to act. The world is waiting,” Trump wrote.
And then, yesterday: “Assad is gone. He has left the country. His protector, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Russia, Russia, is no longer interested in protecting him. There was no reason for Russia to be And they lost all their interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where 600,000 Russian soldiers were injured or killed, in a war that should never have started and could go on forever.”
“Russia and Iran are weakened now, one because of Ukraine and economic problems, the other because of Israel and its successes in war. Likewise, Zelensky and Ukraine would like to come to an agreement and stop this madness They have lost a ridiculous 400,000 soldiers and many more civilians. Because of its involvement in Ukraine, Russia seems incapable of stopping the march (of the militants, ed.) through Syria, a country it has protected for years,” Trump then underlines. .