Iran next in line? The danger to the Ayatollah regime after the fall of Assad

Two storms hit Iran this week, one expected and festive – the snow that painted the capital Tehran white. The second, however, took place more than 1,000 kilometers away. Damascus, the capital of Syria, free from the Iranian occupation, free from the Russian occupation, free from the Assad regime. No Iranian forecaster anticipated the coming of this storm.She was fast, surprising and devastating. After 13 years of Shiite establishment in Damascus, there is no trace of any Shiite, Iranian or Iraqi element in Damascus. Like a hurricane, it destroyed in just nine days what the Iranians had built in Syria for more than a decade.

Babek Itzhaki, a reporter for the “Iran International” channel, believes that the government in Iran is completely shocked by what happened in Syria: “They are recalculating, there is great anger in the regime at the Revolutionary Guards and especially at the Quds Force, which was supposed to protect Assad’s rule.” Itzhaki said that most of the anger is directed at the commander-in-chief of the Quds Force, Sardar Qaani, who “didn’t deliver the goods,” as Qassem Soleimani did.

Syria was the cornerstone, the foundation on which Iranian foreign policy rested in the Middle East. For years the Islamic Republic has paid a great deal of money and blood for its presence. “If we lose Syria, we will not be able to hold on to Iran itself,” was a statement that the top officials of the Ayatollah regime made several times in the last decade. Now they have lost Syria and the big missing is – how will this affect Iran at home and abroad?

My grandfather, a researcher for Iranian affairs at INSS, believes that the Iranians will never give up on the Shia terrorist organizations that serve as its proxies. “This is the way of the revolution,” my grandmother explained. “Without exporting the revolution, without exporting ideologically and armed, it’s another normal and tired dictatorial regime like it used to be in Egypt or Syria.”

Brigadier General Yossi Kopervasser, a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs and a fellow at the Mashgav Institute, detailed the forces remaining in the Shia axis after the fall of Assad: “There are still certain elements of the axis that are still active, both the Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, but this It’s no longer the threatening Shiite axis that it once was, it’s not the same ring of fire that tried to close in on Israel.”

All the huge investments that were in building this capacity have gone down the drain,” Koperwerser explained. “The losses and damages caused to the Axis are such that they cannot be restored and repaired in the foreseeable time frame and everyone smells this weakness.” Koperwerser explained how the developments could also affect the future of Lebanon: “I Presumably the various forces in Lebanon also smell Hezbollah’s weakness at the moment and they too will try to translate it into a change in reality in Lebanon.”

Raz Zimet, an expert on Iran at INSS, detailed how the blow that Iran suffered can have an internal effect on the country: “More and more people in Iran are asking themselves, are the basic concepts of the Islamic Republic in recent decades, the whole concept of emissaries, the very heavy expenses of 30, some will say $50 billion in aid to the Syrian regime to last

Zimet explained: “All these things certainly after the collapse of the regime in Syria, provoke the thought, is the Iranian concept of security still relevant and can what happened in Syria can or might happen in Iran as well?”

The danger to the Ayatollah regime, after the overthrow of the Assad regime

An Iranian resident of Tehran and a regime opponent spoke on the phone with News 12 yesterday. He said that now after the fall of Assad, the Iranians have received great hope: “They see this as a significant step on the way to the fall of Khamenei.” The resident, who participated in the stormy demonstrations against the regime in recent years like many others, is encouraged by what is happening in Syria.

Many residents uploaded videos with one message – the hope that what started in Damascus will also reach Tehran. “They delayed and rejected the hijab law that would have given heavy fines to women. They said they didn’t want to raise the price of gasoline. They are terrified that people here have taken to the streets in Iran, the Iranian explained.

 

 

 

Bavek Itzhaki explained how the fall of Assad may have an internal effect on Iran: “I think what happened in Syria gave the people of Iran a morale that it is possible to take down a dictator, even a dictator who is quite strong and is supported by Russia and Iran. He can be taken down, if all the people are together. I can already see on the networks “Socialists are people who talk about overthrowing the government.”

My grandfather also said that he believes that what happened in Syria can also lead to an uprising and change that may weaken the regime in Iran: “There is a very difficult economic situation in Iran – the Iranians hate their regime. 80% of the Iranian public is against the regime, but it is not organized. The 20 % because supporters are the hard core, the gods, the one with the weapons and the money.”

Yossi Kopervasser also explained that the opposition in Iran is not organized enough, like in Syria: “The danger involved in trying to revolt at the moment is very significant. Even if they succeed, there may be such chaos that many Iranians tell themselves that it is better to suffer under this tyrannical regime than enter the reality of chaos and anarchy.” .

After the axis falls, is the nuke next?

There is another elephant in the room – the Iranian nuclear. The fear in Israel is that the failure of the ring of fire will accelerate the run to nuclear power. With the North Korean model in front of their eyes, it will encourage the Ayatollahs to equip themselves with a bomb that will secure the regime’s future.

Bavek Itzhaki explained why in his opinion Iran is expected to increase its attempts to obtain nuclear weapons: “The nuclear program is the regime’s insurance for its survival. They will not give up and go for it in a big way – in my opinion, they will end up with a nuclear bomb, because with a nuclear bomb no one will mess with them.” .

Raz Zimet explained: “An Iranian decision that means a breakthrough to the nuclear is a decision that becomes even more dangerous, so I estimate that at least in the coming months the Iranians will try to reach some kind of agreement or some kind of willingness on the part of the new administration in the United States.”

Yossi Koperverser commented on the significance of Israel’s latest attack on Iran: “It is to prove to the Iranians that Israel has a reliable military option against the possibility of breaking into a nuclear weapon. If the Americans have been hesitating until now about whether there is logic in attacking Iran, it may be that now they are more confident in themselves.”

A resident of Tehran who spoke to News 12 on the phone referred to the possibility of an Israeli attack on the nuclear facilities: “It is very possible that in a situation of an Israeli attack against military targets or nuclear facilities in Iran, the people in Iran will take advantage of the opportunity and the weakness of the regime to complete the work and overthrow it.”

Iran, a regional power that is fully committed to the destruction of Israel, is at a historic low point. It can no longer threaten with its whips, especially Hamas and Hezbollah. Its anti-aircraft defense is damaged, Syria’s is non-existent. It is completely exposed and this is an unrepeatable opportunity for Israel. Two goals should be in front of our eyes – the nuclear program, and no less important, undermining the foundations of the regime.