FdI ‘stagnates’ in the polls, the Democratic Party above 23

The first trend is the “stagnation” phase of Fratelli d’Italia, which still remains the first party but slightly below 29%. The second trend is the good shape of the Democratic Party, which is confirmed above 23% and just over 5 points from FDI. A third trend, if you can call it that, is the continuing stability of all other political forces. The 5 Star Movement, despite weeks rather full of events linked to internal dynamics with considerable media coverage, returns to the 11.4% on which it had settled in recent months. The small rebound of Action is also confirmed, probably coinciding with Carlo Calenda’s activism on the Stellantis affair (an affair that has greatly affected Italians, mostly negatively). The combination of these three trends means that the opposition forces are slightly growing compared to the average of recent months, while the majority forces are slightly decreasing. However, despite these latest developments, the center-right is still in excellent shape today, as much as and more than what emerged in the European elections last June; on the contrary, the combination of the various opposition forces shows a slight retreat compared to that last important national election.

Only an event with a strong impact on public opinion could move something in such a static, almost immobile framework. This is also why the sentence regarding Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, accused of kidnapping in the Open Arms case, is highly awaited. A possible conviction of Salvini could have unexpected repercussions on the consensus of the League and the center-right in general; vice versa, it is easy to think that an acquittal brings (or brings back) consensus to the Northern League leader and his party.

We will only find out in the next few weeks – or more likely with the first polls of 2025. The Salvini case is however emblematic because it falls within the great, more general theme of immigration: one of the most divisive and polarizing issues on the Italian political scene.

The most recent SWG data also confirm this, as clearly emerges in particular from the question on the attitude that the Italian Government should have towards NGOs operating in the Mediterranean: on this specific issue, Italians are split almost exactly in half, with 41% who would like an attitude to combat NGOs (which becomes 66% among centre-right voters) and 38% who would prefer to support them instead (a position shared by as many as 70% of opposition voters).

#Immigration – Public opinion is divided and politically polarized on NGOs operating in the Mediterranean pic.twitter.com/jj1244EMUF

— SWG (@swg_research)
December 17, 2024

However, the topic of migrants, with all the aspects related to it, are only one of the current issues on which Italians form an opinion which could ultimately affect their voting preferences. As always, at the end of the year, politicians intensely discuss the budget law, its contents but also the ways in which it is examined and approved. According to the latest survey by the Demopolis institute, however, the budget law passed by the Government for 2025 also divides Italians: 44% give it a negative opinion, while 43% are divided between those who consider it the maximum feasible given the scarcity of available resources (28%) and those who instead judge it positively (15%).

An overall less than enthusiastic vision, which clashes with the expectations – or rather the needs – of citizens in view of the new year: according to EMG, in fact, for 62% of Italians in 2025 the government’s priority should be healthcare, a given much higher than in the past and which reflects the difficult condition in which many healthcare facilities find themselves, particularly public ones. If these expectations were not taken into account, voters might no longer be satisfied with the debate (which has taken place so far) on the resources allocated to healthcare by the Government, but they could – legitimately – start to expect to see concrete improvements, and to vote consequently.

NOTE: The Youtrend/Agi Supermedia is a weighted average of national polls on voting intentions. Today’s weighting, which includes surveys carried out from 5 to 18 December, was carried out on 19 December based on the sample size, the date of completion and the data collection method. The surveys considered were carried out by the institutes Demopolis (publication date: 16 December), EMG (13 December), Eumetra (12 December), Euromedia (11 December), Ixè (11 December), Quorum (9 December), SWG ( 9 and 16 December) and Tecnè (7 and 14 December). The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it