South Korea plunges into a political crisis unprecedented in its democratic history

The Parliament of South Korea dismissed Han Duck-soo, prime minister and interim president, this Friday, which aggravates the political chaos unleashed after the declaration of martial law at the beginning of the month and presents a panorama of institutional uncertainty unprecedented in the democratic history of the country.

Han has been acting president for just two weeks, having inherited the responsibility from President Yoon Suk-yeol, ousted by Congress on December 14 for his surprise and poorly reasoned decision to declare a state of emergency 11 days earlier.

South Korea had never given up democracy to an acting head of state and government, a scenario that leads to it being, from now on, Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok, who takes office.

The opposition has said that it will continue to pressure whoever occupies the presidency to authorize the renewal of the Constitutional Court and special investigations against Yoon and the first lady – something that the Executive and the ruling party refuse – and that it will continue to present impeachment motions until it achieves this. .

There is therefore the possibility that Choi will last less than Han if in the coming days he does not give in to the demands of the main opposition party, the liberal Democratic Party (PD).

Thus, the next candidates to occupy the interim presidency are, respectively, the Minister of Education, Lee Ju-ho, the Minister of Science, Yoo Sang-im, and the Chancellor, Cho Tae-yul.

By presenting the motion to remove Han on Thursday, the PD gave five reasons to request his dismissal. Among them, that as prime minister he could have been complicit in the declaration of martial law and also that he maneuvered together with the former leader of the ruling party, the conservative People’s Power Party (PPP), so that, instead of being dismissed, Yoon resign in a few months, thus limiting the electoral damage for the ruling party.

The definitive affront for the PD took place this week, when Han refused to approve two motions to launch special investigations -to investigate Yoon on account of the state of emergency and his wife for alleged corruption- and to ratify the appointments of three new judges for the Constitutional Court.

Han and the PPP argued that both decisions should require consensus from both parties in the National Assembly (Parliament), where the PD has a majority, in order to give their endorsement.

The Constitutional Court, which is being a battleground between the two main parties and promises to continue being so in the coming months, He is already trying Yoon for his declaration of martial law and has until June 11 to ratify or not his dismissal.

If the three current vacancies are not filled, which must be ratified by whoever is interim president, the six judges who currently make up the Constitutional Court must unanimously approve Yoon’s disqualification for it to become effective.

Thus, while the PPP seeks to delay the process to dismiss Yoon given the possibility that the Supreme Court could soon ratify a sentence for violating the electoral law that weighs on the leader of the liberals, the PD wants to accelerate it to avoid that scenario, that would leave him headless in the presidential elections in which he is currently the undisputed favorite.

Many believe that the Constitutional Court will not take long to issue its ruling, although on the horizon there are another problem: On April 18, the terms of two other judges expire and in this case the appointment of their substitutes corresponds entirely to the president, interim or not, so there is a possibility that the hearing will be completely paralyzed by having only four judges.

Many experts warn of the danger posed by this institutional paralysis in the face of the economic and diplomatic challenges that the country faces in 2025.

On the one hand, martial law has already had its effects on the won (which is trading at its lowest level with the dollar since 2008), the Seoul Stock Exchange and the prospects for foreign investment and growth.

Added to this is the fact that the Republican will soon take office as president of the United States. Donald Trumpwhich has South Korea in its sights considering that it does not pay enough for the presence of US troops and for its trade surplus with the world’s leading economy.

Not only Trump’s threat of tariffs – which would harm an economy that depends 44% on the foreign sector – is worrying Seoul; also the possibility of betting on an open trade conflict with China from which South Korea would be greatly harmed as they are its two main trading partners.

In turn, it is possible that Trump decides to talk again with North Korea, a process that Seoul would do well to follow closely at a time when Moscow also gains weight in the equation due to its recent rapprochement with Pyongyang.