Fails election in Congress? Shortly before the inauguration, Trump’s triumph is shaky

On January 6th, four years after the bloody attack on the heart of US democracy, Donald Trump wants to clear the last hurdle before the inauguration on January 20th: the certification of his election victory by Congress in the Capitol. And if possible, without incident.

This is primarily why Trump is counting on the re-election of Republican Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House of Representatives. But the politician from Louisiana is causing such an allergic reaction in the right-wing wing of his group that, given the narrow majority, he could fail in the election for speaker planned for Friday. That could, in turn, make it more difficult to certify Trump’s victory on January 6th.

Bad memories

In 2021, when Joe Biden’s victory was at stake, the procedure was delayed for hours by violence committed by Trump supporters at the Capitol. This year, the House of Representatives would not be able to function without an officially elected speaker – after all, number three in the state – say constitutional lawyers in Washington. Without him, the electoral votes could not be counted and Trump’s election victory could not be certified as watertight. Without a “speaker”, the members of parliament are also not allowed to be sworn in.

Because of the narrow majority, Johnson can’t even afford a dissenting vote, they say. But this one, Thomas Massie, already exists: The representative from Kentucky considers Johnson to be “incapable” of implementing budget cuts. In addition to Massie, more than a dozen conservative MPs reserve the right to put their own man at the top. They are demanding various concessions from him regarding the state budget and the distribution of power in important congressional committees.

Johnson’s predecessor Kevin McCarthy failed in such extra deals in 2023. First his “party friends” expected him to vote 15 times, later they cold-bloodedly booted him out. Prominent Republicans like Newt Gingrich, once a speaker himself, strongly advise potential dissenters to suppress their spirit of resistance. A “no” to Johnson would strengthen the Democrats and ruin Trump’s start to his second presidency, he warns.

But many Republicans were just as unimpressed by this as they were by Trump’s call for Johnson. But they have one major weakness: Nobody is making any plans to run against Johnson. That’s why Trump confidently says: “He’s the one who can win right now. People like him. Almost everyone likes him.”

Because of the stalemate, consideration is now being given to moving the date of confirmation of Trump’s election closer to January 20th, the inauguration. Party members don’t think much of this: Trump’s confirmation should not be jeopardized; resistance to Johnson is “pointless.”