China and Taiwan: Could Donald Trump’s return to the White House reignite tensions in Asia?

On the one hand, the Asian country announced on Thursday sanctions against 10 US companies and its leaders for their involvement in the arms sales to Taiwan carried out by the administration of the president Joe Biden.

Companies like the giant Lockheed Martin o General Dynamics they entered a “list of untrustworthy entities”, in such a way that they will not be able to carry out imports or exports “linked to China“, nor invest in the Asian country. Furthermore, its “senior officials” will not be able to enter Chinese territory either.

On the other hand, the Chinese president Xi Jinping said Tuesday in a New Year’s address to the nation that “no one can stop” reunification with Taiwan, an island with its own democratic government that Beijing considers part of its territory.

“The Chinese people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. “No one can break our blood ties, and no one can stop the historical trend towards the reunification of the homeland.”declared Xi in a speech broadcast on state media.

Both actions occur just a few weeks before Trump takes office as president of the United States.

It should be taken into account that Taiwan It represents a point of contention between Beijing and Washington. The White House does not officially recognize the island, but It is its strategic ally and its largest weapons supplier.

The arrival of Trump to the Presidency represents an unpredictable factor in this scenario. During his first term, the Republican took a tough stance toward Chinaimposing tariffs and challenging the Asian giant’s trade practices. On repeated occasions, he used the sale of weapons to Taiwan as a pressure tool, provoking angry responses from China.

One of the magnate’s campaign promises has been to impose tariffs of 60% on his rivala strategy that is not reserved exclusively for its opponents, but that it plans to replicate in allies such as Canada or business partners such as Mexico.

Historical context

From the Chinese perspective, Taiwan represents the last vestige of the “century of humiliation”comments to The Commerce Jorge Antonio Chávez Mazuelos, internationalist specialist in Asian politics. The island was under Japanese control from 1895 to 1945. Later, after the civil war between communists and nationalists, which culminated in the defeat of the nationalists, they retreated to the island and proclaimed themselves the legitimate government of the entire China.

“I think it is essential to understand these statements in that deep historical context. When Xi Jinping states that ‘no one can stop reunification’, he is referring to this long term narrative. China has clearly expressed that reunification should not extend beyond the year 2049coinciding with the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China”points out the analyst.

However, this is a complex issue. In the last 30 years, Taiwan has moved towards democratization. The “one country, two systems” model, which seeks peaceful reunification, has already been implemented in Hong Kong and Macau, but political freedoms in those regions have been reduced.

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There is another crucial factor: the economy. Taiwan produces more than 65% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced. Chinafor its part, does not have such manufacturing capacity for these essential parts for its industry.

At a strategic and defense level, Taiwan is part of the first chain of islands that contains China’s maritime projection towards the Pacific. This chain includes Japan, the Rukiu Islands, the Philippines and Borneo. For For any great power, maritime power projection is essential, and Taiwan is a key piece in that puzzle.

Trump and China’s response

For Chávez Mazuelos, “there is a bipartisan consensus between Democrats and Republicans regarding the competitive nature of the relationship with China, although there are nuances”. For example, with Biden There was a trend towards the institutionalization of the relationship, with political dialogue at the highest level. That is, there were frequent meetings between presidents, ministers and national security advisors, which established certain signalmen.

Trumphowever, has a more transactional view of foreign policy. He considers that the US excessively subsidizes its allies and believes that they should pay more for their defense. “From that perspective, he sees alliances as agreements that must generate immediate benefits, unlike Biden’s more strategic understanding”.

But with the new administration there will not be a fundamental change in interests or structural issues.

“Where I can see a change is in the more aggressive rhetoric that the administration of Trump. “He has said that he plans to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese products, that could have an impact, there is a trade deficit of about $280 billion favorable to China, and Trump wants to continue reducing this,” says the expert.

With respect to Taiwanit remains to be seen what stance the incoming president will take. During his first administration, Trump maintained support and arms sales to Taiwan, a policy that is likely to continue. However, it will be key to watch how the landscape in East Asia evolves and how the United States’ allies in the region react.

Trump often prioritizes domestic affairs and domestic strategic imperatives over foreign and defense policy. The big question is whether his government will maintain a strong commitment to allies such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines in the face of tensions with China, or whether it will reduce its support, thus weakening regional alliances.

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This dynamic is crucial, since Taiwan It forms an integral part of the strategic equation of East Asia. Any change in the level of US support for its allies could have a direct impact on the stability of the region and on Taiwan’s position vis-à-vis Beijing.

Could China try to intervene on the island?

According to Chávez, in the short term, military intervention in Taiwan is unlikely. China is completing modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), aiming to achieve advanced capabilities by 2027. US military superiority is still significant, although the gap is closing.

“For China, Taiwan represents an existential issue in three dimensions: historical, strategic and economic. It is a red line and a central interest from which they are not willing to deviate. However, this situation is unlikely to escalate in the short term, mainly due to the critical importance of semiconductors, an essential and highly sensitive resource for both economies,” the internationalist explains to this newspaper.

“Furthermore, a military operation to take Taiwan would be extremely expensive and complex. Despite being a small island, with less than 30 million inhabitants, its geography provides a natural defense: the sea acts as a protective moat. Taiwan’s western coasts are shallow, which prevents the entry of deep-draft ships, forcing an amphibious operation to be carried out. On the other hand, the eastern coast is steep and mountainous, giving a significant tactical advantage to the defenders. “Urban combat would add another layer of difficulty, as Taiwanese forces know the terrain well and city warfare requires overwhelming superiority in terms of troops,” he adds..

But we’re not just talking about economic losses. an invasion It would not only entail a high military cost, but also a negative narrative impact for China. From Beijing’s perspective, a war against Taiwan would be perceived as an internal conflict, a fight “between brothers,” which would add considerable political and symbolic weight.

In the medium and long term things could be different. Although in principle China says it is committed to a peaceful resolution, it does not rule out the military option.

“I see it (a military intervention) as complicated, but I don’t see it as impossible, and growing tensions can always bring undesired consequences,” comments Chávez..

There is the danger that China sees US arms sales to Taiwan as meddling in internal affairs. Although the US officially recognizes Beijing, Congress approved the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979, which allows the sale of defensive weapons to the island. Beijing interprets it as a double standard that affects its core interests.