What are the real possibilities that the opponent has to return to Venezuela and take office as president on January 10?

On Monday, the Minister of the Interior of Venezuela, Diosdado Hairsaid that González will be “arrested and tried” if he returns to the country. “I will gladly receive it (…). The Lord knows Gonzalez Urrutia that you barely put a finger on Venezuela “He will be arrested,” Chavismo’s number 2 threatened in a press conference.

Last September, González left Venezuela to go into exile in Spainafter a judge issued an arrest warrant against him for alleged usurpation of functions, forging a public document, instigating disobedience of the laws, conspiracy, sabotage of systems and crimes of association. All of this related to the dissemination of the electoral records that give him victory in the July 28 elections by a margin of 30 points over Maduro.

On Thursday of last week, the regime Maduro He offered a reward of $100,000 for information leading to the capture of the opponent.

On Sunday night, González published a video on social networks where He asked the Armed Forces to overcome “the challenges” facing the country and defend popular sovereignty.

“According to the 1999 Constitution, promoted by Hugo Chávez Frías, on January 10, by the sovereign will of the Venezuelan people, I must assume the role of commander in chief, with the responsibility of protecting our families and directing our efforts towards a future of well-being and prosperity for all Venezuelans”he stated.

“Our National Armed Forces are called to be a guarantee of sovereignty and respect for the popular will. “It is our duty to act with honor, merit and conscience, guided by the values ​​that unite us with a fundamental institution of the Republic,” he added.

For her part, the opposition leader María Corina Machado called on “everyone” to take to the streets of Venezuela and the world on January 9.

”This day will be recorded in history as the day when Venezuela He said enough. Enough of holding on, enough of being silent. It is our land, our flag. “Freedom is not begged, it is fought and conquered.” manifested Machado in an audio published in X.

Meanwhile, González was received this Monday in USA by the president Joe Bidenas part of his tour. On Saturday he met with the presidents Javier Milei in Argentina and Luis Lacalle Pou in Uruguay. And he plans to be with President José Raúl Mulino in Panama on the 8th and in the Dominican Republic with Luis Abinader on the 9th, before trying to return to Venezuela.

Will González return and assume the Presidency?

Mariano de AlbaVenezuelan lawyer and expert in international law, told The Commerce what the return of González is subject to two conditions: a massive mobilization of society and the willingness of at least part of the ruling elite to support a transition; that is to say, a break in the hard core of power.

“For Edmundo González to return to Venezuela there would have to be a fundamental change in the current circumstancesand that he sees that the possibility of assuming the Presidency is quite clear. That basically means that the January 9 protests are successful and generate a break in at least part of the Government coalition, whether civil or military, that concludes that there is no alternative but to leave power”said De Alba.

“But That fundamental change in circumstances does not seem very likely today, “It would be surprising if it happens before January 10”he noted.

The analyst believes that the reason why González insisted on promoting his return to Venezuela on January 10 has to do with putting pressure on the regime and taking advantage of the momentum of the date, and see if that fundamental change in circumstances materializes later. “If it does not happen now, it is most likely that he will remain outside Venezuela, but he will continue trying to generate that change so that he can return to the country and take office.”.

But will there be many people on the streets this January 9? De Alba maintained that it is difficult to know. He added that the participation of the popular sectors is key.

He said that after the July 28 elections, The opposition did not know how to capitalize on the spontaneous protests that emerged in popular neighborhoods. “There was no political leadership, it was a big mistake, because the opposition political leadership was more focused on the issue of collecting and publishing the electoral records”.

“Now the scenario has become quite complex, because The wave of brutal repression deployed by the Government has generated fear in a large part of the population. Even so, I think there is annoyance, a desire for change, and it is possible that these popular sectors will come out to protest again, although I do not see the desire to risk everything for there to be a change.”he added.

De Alva explained that in the last month the Government began to release a good part of those detained in the post-election repression, and he believes that it is doing so because is preparing for a new wave of repression, and needs space in detention centers.

For the Venezuelan political scientist Luis Nunesthe international solidarity tour, and the contacts he made from exile in Spain, are giving González strength to try to reach Venezuela on January 9 or 10.

“What is said is that he will arrive with a delegation of presidents and former presidents. Then, it is unlikely that the regime in power will dare to attack the plane or execute any other maneuver. “All of this is part of the speculation, because neither María Corina nor Edmundo have revealed their strategy,” said Nunes.

“The regime is very nervous, it has militarized cities, it has rationed gasoline, it prevents people from traveling from one city to another, and it has tight control of the airspace. This thanks to the shameful complicity of the military leadership. “They are going to continue applying what they have been doing since July 28, fear, repression, torture to prevent people from demonstrating.”he added.

However, Nunes said he has the impression that María Corina’s request will be heard both in Venezuela and abroad, and that people are going to come out to protest. “The issue of fear in Venezuela is not working for the regime.”

Regarding González’s message addressed to the Armed Forces, Nunes said that “the military leadership knows that its days are numbered if it decides to usurp power alongside Maduro on January 10. Every day there are fewer of them and many of them, between July 28 and now, decided to leave or are in prison, they would even have arrived in Peru escaping from Venezuela.”

What will happen from January 11?

And Maduro remains in power for a third termDe Alva believes that The regime will continue to apply the brutal repression that it promoted since July 28.

“It is the mechanism that the Government has to try to control the population. The Government is very isolated internationally, but fundamentally in the West, then there are a series of countries in the East with which it has important ties, both political and economic, which it is trying to increase,” he said.

“I believe that in the first months of the year the Government is going to maintain high repression, a significant deployment of security forces, and then it’s going to possibly try to divide the opposition again, and for that he will seek to take advantage of the fact that in Venezuela there will be a series of local elections and for the National Assembly. “It is a Government that manages to stay in power because it controls the institutions of the State, it has a large amount of resources.”he insisted.

For Nunes, If Maduro manages to prevail, it will not last long“even more so when President Donald Trump takes office on January 20. I think that his Latin American policy will be focused on the Venezuelan issue, in addition to the issue of migrants.”

“Trump’s team dedicated to the Venezuelan issue is going to bring us surprises. What’s more, if Trump had been sworn in on January 10 and not the 20th, those surprises would have been ahead of time,” said Nunes.

As to Gonzalez Nunes said that after the tour, and if he fails to take office as president, his focus will be on seeking to have the best relations with the Trump Government. “In fact, he is invited to the inauguration on January 20 at the Capitol.”