Counterattacking in Kursk, Ukraine may want to demonstrate its ability to challenge the Russian military, increasing its bargaining value in future negotiations.
On January 5, the Ukrainian army launched a surprise counterattack against Russian forces at several locations in Kursk province. The counterattack effort was carried out after months of Ukraine struggling to fend off repeated attacks by Russian forces to dislodge the enemy from this border province.
In a post on the Telegram network on January 5, Andriy Yermak, chief of staff of President Volodymyr Zelensky, wrote “Kursk region, good news, Russia is getting what it deserves”.
The Ukrainian army first launched an attack on Kursk province in August 2024, controlling a number of areas here. The cross-border attack campaign at that time surprised both Russia and Ukraine’s allies, helping Kiev capture a large area of ​​territory. But in recent months, Russia has gradually narrowed the area that Ukraine controls in Kursk.
Russian tank broken down on the side of the road in Sudzha, Kursk province in August 2024. Image: AP
Observers say Ukraine’s new counterattack emphasizes Kiev’s commitment to maintaining pressure on Russia and expanding the scope of the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders. This shows that Ukraine not only protects its territory but is also willing to challenge the Russian army on its soil.
This effort by Ukraine could help boost Western support at a time when its future faces many uncertainties, according to analysts.
US President Donald Trump is preparing to return to the White House and he has repeatedly stated that he will find a way to end the Ukraine conflict immediately after taking office. Many people worry that Mr. Trump may pressure Kiev to force them to sit at the negotiating table with Moscow.
Some experts believe that if Ukraine can increase the scope of territorial control in Kursk, this will be a valuable bargaining chip when peace negotiations take place.
“Mr. Zelensky once hinted that the Kursk region could play a role in any peace agreement. Kiev currently controls about 585 square kilometers of Russian territory,” said Luke Harding, analyst at Guardianspeak.
The decision to counterattack in Kursk also signals a calculated effort to exploit weaknesses in the Russian defense line, which has not fully recovered from Ukraine’s lightning offensive campaign last summer, according to observers.
Experts say the front in Kursk could put more pressure on Russian forces, which are already under a lot of stress because of the prolonged fighting in Ukraine. Much initial information from both Ukrainian and Russian sources shows that Kiev’s counterattack targets strategic points near the border, seeking to destabilize Moscow’s control.
Last year’s lightning attack on Kursk exposed gaps in Russia’s defenses, as well as the limitations of its military resources. Despite additional resources entering the region, Russia has had difficulty regaining control of the territory. Analysts say Ukraine’s new attack will test whether the measures Russia has deployed are enough to protect the region.
Russia now faces the situation of having to focus on protecting Kursk while also finding ways to maintain offensive momentum in eastern Ukraine. This could reduce resources and disrupt the Russian army’s attack plans on strongholds in Donetsk.
Analysts say the decision to launch a new counterattack in Kursk also emphasizes a change in Ukraine’s strategy, shifting to a more proactive stance, to force Russia to reduce offensive pressure in hot spots such as Donetsk and Luhansk.
Ukraine’s ability to maintain and renew military operations within Russia not only reflects Kiev’s resistance, but also indicates a strategy for changing the situation on the ground, according to some observers. This approach would challenge Russia’s belief that its territory would be “immune” to conflict in Ukraine.
Battle situation in the Kursk area as of January 4. Graphics: The Guardian
Russian President Vladimir Putin may face limited and risky response options.
If Mr. Putin transfers resources from Donetsk to the Kursk front, Russia can stop Ukraine’s advance and regain territory. However, this option could delay Russia’s combat operations in Donetsk and weaken its strategic position. That could open up opportunities for Ukraine to regain gains on the Donbass front.
The second option is that Mr. Putin continues to focus his efforts on the eastern front and let Ukraine temporarily control part of the territory in Kursk. This option could help Russia secure resources for its main goals, but could be seen as a propaganda failure and undermine domestic confidence in Russia’s ability to protect its borders.
Alternatively, Russian leaders could choose to pursue diplomatic measures to temporarily freeze the conflict. And Mr. Trump’s inauguration on January 20 could provide a potential opportunity for negotiations.
However, seeking a ceasefire may mean that Moscow must make more concessions to Kiev and does not rule out the possibility that Russia must recognize the territory that Ukraine controls in Kursk.