Continues to steal: this is how Russia lost control of the Mediterranean Sea

Russia’s military is at a multi-year low in the Middle East and Mediterranean region, and for the first time in 12 years, Russia does not have a nuclear submarine in the Mediterranean. The respected naval intelligence blog Navalnews reported this week that since January 2, Russia has not had a submarine in the Mediterranean Sea, after de facto losing control of the port of Tartus.

Five days ago, the Russian submarine Novorossiysk left the Mediterranean Sea through the Strait of Gibraltar, and sailed towards the Baltic Sea. Portugal’s navy confirmed the report of the submarine on January 4. This is an unusual event, because since 2013, Russia has almost continuously maintained at least one nuclear submarine in the Mediterranean Sea, according to open intelligence researchers.

The absence of a Russian nuclear-armed combat submarine from Mediterranean waters, other than for routine exchanges, is considered highly unusual. According to Navalnews, the Russian Navy is currently at its lowest point since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022.

Officially, Russia still maintains control of the naval base at Tartus, one of its most important points in the Middle East region. Despite this, the Russian Navy stopped using it in practice, and since December 3 no Russian submarine has appeared in port. The estimates are that even if another Russian submarine is expected to arrive in the Mediterranean in place of Novorossiysk, it will not arrive in the coming days – based on observations and location data of other submarines identified in other areas, mainly in the Baltic Sea.

At the same time, recent satellite images show that the docks of the port are still loaded with Russian military equipment awaiting evacuation from Syria, but there is no Russian ship docked there. A Russian warship named Admiral Grigorovich anchors not far away, more than eight kilometers away.

With Sea Flotilla
50cm Maxar from 6 January 2025

Naval piers still empty but the equipment to be evacuated stretches for almost a km

Also spotted, 8km W/SW of the port, was the Admiral Grigorovich (494) frigate, underway but moving very slowly@Dmojavensis @Schizointel pic.twitter.com/6f9HSzsw1j

— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) January 7, 2025

A large part of Russia’s military equipment evacuated from its bases in Syria was transferred to bases in eastern Libya. According to some reports, Russia has examined the possibility of establishing a new and central naval base in the Mediterranean Sea in the region, but at the moment there is no clear evidence that such a move has actually come to fruition.

The loss of the Tartus base and the lack of Russian control in the Mediterranean could have far-reaching consequences for Russia. The sea and air bases in Tartus and Khameim in Syria play a crucial role, among other things, in Russia’s continued control and supply of its many forces in Africa. With the loss of military control in Syria – Russia risks damaging its activities in African countries, especially in the Sahel region.

Sources and officials in the West confirmed this morning to the Wall Street Journal what is already largely known – that Iran was forced to withdraw the vast majority of its forces from Syria. The assessment in the US is that Iran will try to renew its involvement and influence in the country, but this is unlikely in the near term. US officials say that in the long term, Iran will try to activate old networks of ties with the aim of igniting tensions and instability – which will allow it to increase its influence.