Venezuela | Nicolás Maduro | From the opposition’s greatest challenge to the fracture of the regime: what is coming for Venezuela after Maduro’s new coup?

Simultaneous with yesterday’s events in Venezuela, during the broadcast of the program The World Now through the El Comercio website, we convey this concern to analysts, journalists and activists.

Luis Parada, a Venezuelan merchant and representative of the opposition party Voluntad Popular in our country, recognizes that the latest street demonstrations have not been as massive as those a few months ago as a result of the very violent repression.

“Even so, the Democrats have come out to protest despite the intimidation, despite all the political prisoners and despite the fact that the country has the largest torture center in Latin America,” he points out.

He adds that the pressure strategy must continue in search of the internal collapse of the regime. “We will look for a way so that the street does not remain silent, so that the internal pressure does not subside,” he notes.

Venezuelan journalist Ronna Rísquez highlights “the message of strength and very encouraging” that María Corina Machado gave on Thursday the 9th with her presence at the mobilization in Caracas and her departure from hiding after more than four months. “That she showed up, that she gave a speech and that Venezuelans saw her and saw that she continues to fight for the freedom of Venezuela, the same as Edmundo González from the outside, is a very powerful message,” he says.

He emphasizes, in any case, that what is coming will not be easy: “In any case, it is now up to her (Machado) to refine and adjust the strategy and continue with this path until the end. It has not been and will not be easy, but we have to trust her and González, and wait for the lines they are going to draw.”

For this reason, Rísquez points out, at this moment the challenge of the opposition and of María Corina Machado and González Urrutia is to act so that the hope and support of the people towards their cause does not decline, something that is not so easy to ask of the citizens in Venezuela, where there is no a conventional scenario in which people can exercise their right to protest freely,

“Venezuela has had authoritarian governments for 25 years, which violate human rights, which violate freedoms. Unfortunately, it is not easy to get out of this type of regime,” he says.

María Puerta, professor of American Government at Valencia College in Orlando (Florida), emphasized the role of the international community.

“What happens at the regional level will be very important. We must recognize that it is necessary to summon governments such as those of Colombia and Brazil, which promised to mediate for a peaceful solution. Although they have recognized their failure until now, in some way they are also contributing to recognizing a flawed political regime,” questions the political scientist.

Venezuelan political scientist Luis Nunes, who has lived in Peru for several years, speaks along the same lines and considers that the opposition’s next steps will have to be a “mixture of national offensive with international offensive.” “A lot of pressure is expected from the international community, many demonstrations, many statements,” he points out.

The first actions of the international community took place on Friday the 10th, shortly after Maduro was sworn in for a third consecutive term. The United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and the European Union not only issued harsh statements against the regime, but also increased sanctions against its members.

For Puerta, these measures are far ahead of the reactions of the countries in the region, where, the expert points out, unfortunately there are no more practical and tangible mechanisms to prevent the consolidation of a dictatorial regime in Venezuela.

Regarding the effectiveness of the increase in sanctions, the analyst points out that these measures will not achieve regime change on their own, but they can achieve that goal if they have an impact on those who make political decisions.

“That is why the additional sanctions on members of the Maduro regime are important and now that the dictatorship has been consummated, its repercussions are going to be different than before. The only way for there to be a break in Maduro’s coalition, in which there are certainly many divisions, is to put even more pressure, not only internally, but also externally because the regime is now much more isolated than it thought. it was before last July 28,” he comments.

He doesn’t have it all with him

Regarding the Chavista hosts, Parada highlighted that the inauguration took place in a ceremonial hall of the National Assembly and not in the usual, much larger venue. “We saw the consummation of a coup d’état, but with the fear of the crime committed.”

Nunes gave his reasons for believing in a not-so-distant break within the military sector that supports the disciple of Hugo Chávez: “It is no longer enough to pay for the white slave trade, the whiskey and all the privileges that this small leadership of generals has, and That’s why Maduro is very concerned about keeping them happy. It seems to me that this is the initial factor triggering the fall of the regime from within.”

Parada points out that proof of the rupture within the security forces scheme is that there has been a significant decrease in the repressive forces on the streets of Venezuela.

“The armed forces are not repressing at the same pace and magnitude as in previous years. Maduro only has a remnant of intelligence and external groups that protect the dictatorship, such as Cubans and Iranians. There are also the collectives, which are armed groups. But there is a large desertion of Venezuelan troops,” he points out.

Puerta explains that the regime recognizes its weakness from the point of view of political legitimacy. He points out that Maduro and company probably believe that violence and political persecution is enough to gain legitimacy, but that is not the case. “The Venezuelan people know that Maduro lost the election and are convinced that this Friday a de facto regime was established in Venezuela,” he says.

For this reason, the expert believes that Maduro’s bet at this moment is to demobilize Venezuelan citizens through reprisals and intimidation.

“This week’s arrests indicate to us that they are going to deepen the political persecution. The only way to maintain social cohesion is to go out into the streets despite the threats,” he says.

Rísquez asks not to lose sight of the fact that there are a series of indicators that show that Chavismo is at its worst in terms of economics, international support – more and more governments do not recognize it than those that do – and popular support. .

“Those are factors that are important and that weigh at this moment. In addition, there are internal divisions within Chavismo that are not necessarily known, as was demonstrated with the arrest and subsequent release of María Corina Machado. Evidently there was an order from someone and then a counter order from someone with more power. It is logical to conclude that these two orders – to arrest her and release her – came from two different sectors of the government, which shows some type of difference within the regime,” he concludes.