At Donald Trump’s inauguration, Giorgia Meloni was not only the only European leader, but also the only leader of the wider Mediterranean (North Africa, Middle East, Sahel). Can it play a role between the United States and this quadrant, also considering that Trump did not set foot in Africa in his first term but in Washington they want to counter Russian and Chinese influence?
“I believe that Meloni can absolutely play a bridging role with Arab and African countries – Karim Mezran, senior fellow and director of the North Africa Initiative at the Atlantic Council, one of the most important American think tanks, tells Adnkronos – even more than in the comparisons with Europe. I don’t see Germany and France giving up a direct relationship with Trump, while the Italian prime minister can carve out a prominent space for herself. Unlike the first term, this time we see a team around the president who can build more stable and predictable foreign policy channels. Even if the man always remains very difficult for us analysts to read.”
Could the Mattei plan be a key? “Meloni was very intelligent and found a way to position herself well – continues the Libyan expert – It is not so much the number of projects or the billions invested that counts, but rather Italy’s ability to fit into a context that until now was dominated by other actors . The French, for example, lost across the board, and to say that they had a post-colonial structure. The Italian Prime Minister is the only leader we are talking about at the moment, the only one everyone is curious about.”
“There were 700 people at the Atlantic Council award given to her by Elon Musk, and just as many had asked us to participate – remembers Mezran – Usually there were half the guests at the gala. I’m in this think tank Washington for 12 years and until last year no one had asked me for detailed information on the Italian government.” “At most they asked me for restaurant recommendations”, he jokes, but underlining a serious point: “Politically you may like it or not, but Meloni has placed herself at the center of attention. And even with Trump she understood how to proceed. Who wants to have a relationship with the American president, he cannot follow the diplomatic patterns of the past.”
If you ask Mezran what will happen in American foreign policy, he reiterates that making predictions is impossible, and will be so for the next four years. “I can say that, among the issues raised by Trump in his press conference at Mar-a-Lago, the issue of Panama seems to me to be the most concrete. Something will happen there to counter Chinese power on one of the crucial trade hubs on the American continent. On Greenland, however, I don’t take chances. In the Middle East, where Israel is now the main power, there will be talk of the Abraham Accords again, and Trump will decide who and how to include them.”
And who should Italy talk to more in this quadrant? “I believe we should build a stronger bond with Turkey. Both on a commercial and strategic level. Our industries are compatible. It is a country with which we could rebuild stability in Libya, it can help us with Egypt, it has created a strong presence in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Italians have an atavistic fear of the relationship with Ankara, but today the situation is very different”, comments the Atlantic Council analyst.