Ruler Lukashenko is holding Belarus elections without an alternative

In the presidential election, which was criticized as a farce, ruler Alexander Lukashenko showed himself confidently in favor of a seventh term in office. “Whether they recognize these elections or not is a matter of taste. I don’t give a damn,” Lukashenko told reporters in Minsk in response to a question about the EU’s failure to recognize the vote. At the same time, he said that out of a sense of responsibility he would remain in power as long as those around him supported him. But he is ready to hand over the scepter of power to a younger generation if a suitable candidate is found.

The election management reported the turnout four hours before the polling stations closed in the afternoon at 75.49 percent, more than in 2020. Around 6.9 million eligible voters were called to vote. It was considered certain that Lukashenko (70), described as Europe’s last dictator, would be declared the winner again after 30 years in power. The four competitors in the ex-Soviet republic are considered pure extras.

Polling stations close at 6:00 p.m. CET (8:00 p.m. local time). In 2020, the electoral commission awarded him 80.1 percent of the vote – with 84.38 percent turnout. This triggered mass protests across the country, which Lukashenko had violently suppressed – with Russia’s help. According to the United Nations, 300,000 people have left Belarus since then.

Human rights activists: More than 1,200 political prisoners

A good four years after the mass protests against Lukashenko’s permanent rule, opposition members have either fled abroad or been in prison. Human rights activists criticize the fact that more than 1,200 people are in political prison. Belarus is also the last country in Europe where the death penalty is still carried out – by shooting in the neck. Anyone who speaks critically in the country risks imprisonment. The media are brought into line, many independent news portals are blocked.

In Brussels, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas spoke of a sham election and an “affront to democracy” in Belarus. Lukashenko clings to power but has no legitimacy, she wrote on X.

Opposition demands non-recognition of the election

The opposition in exile was divided over how to handle the vote. Some called for a boycott, others called for using the option “against everyone” on the ballot paper. The camp surrounding leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who many believed won the election in 2020, called on the international community not to recognize either the election or Lukashenko as president. The country is subject to Western sanctions not only because of political repression, but also because of its support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

Before the election, Lukashenko had repeatedly pardoned political prisoners – more than 200 in total. According to experts, this is primarily linked to the hope that the West will resume dialogue. At the press conference in Minsk, he again emphasized his willingness to resume contact.

After long concerns about the health of the most well-known imprisoned opposition figure Maria Kolesnikova, Lukashenko recently allowed her father to visit and did not rule out a pardon. You could also see pictures of the imprisoned former bank manager Viktor Babariko, who was not admitted to the election in 2020 as the most promising candidate.

Expert: More support for Lukashenko again

The political scientist Valeri Karbalevich, who lives in exile abroad, sees a country in fear: Lukashenko’s apparatus fears new protests and therefore had representatives in institutions collect support signatures before the vote. “The entire state machinery is upside down, although there is not the slightest hint of protest and no candidate as an alternative,” he said. The KGB secret service, which was already feared in Soviet times because of its brutality, maintains a tight grip on Belarus.

And voters are also scared because they are threatened with criminal prosecution if they read critical information on their cell phones, Karbalevich told the German Press Agency. Lukashenko wants to gain fresh legitimacy with the vote now scheduled for winter. Actually the regular date would have been in the summer.

Lukashenko is currently benefiting from a certain consolidation of society because the critics are gone. In addition, he is portraying himself as a protector of peace and stability, especially with a view to the war in neighboring Ukraine. “He also has support from many who were against him in 2020, but who were also pro-Russian back then and are now back in line,” explained Karbalevich. Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin did not abandon Lukashenko at the time, despite the hopes of many demonstrators in Belarus.

High dependence on Russia

The expert Karbalevich expects that Lukashenko, who has recently been plagued by health problems, will want to remain in power until the end of his life. The chances are not bad, “because whoever is friends with Russia gets gas and oil at low prices and the nuclear protective shield.” Belarus is now also doing better economically because the country’s companies produce for Russia’s war economy.

The price for Lukashenko’s retention of power is increasing economic, financial and political dependence on Putin. “But Belarus has less and less sovereignty,” said Karbalevich. Nevertheless, because of the strong resistance in Minsk, he sees no acute danger of Russia annexing itself to its neighbors.