Fdi at 29.5%, Pd at 23.3%. The data of the latest supermedia agi/YouTrend

If the logics used by those who make public opinion analysis follow those of those who make political communication, we should say that today’s supermedia presents sensational data. In fact, in the aftermath of the parliamentary sessions in which the Nordio and planted ministers provided their respective reports on the Almasri affair, strongly contested by the oppositions, the picture that emerges from the Supermedia AGI/Youtrend is substantially unchanged compared to that of two weeks ago.

Today’s data, processed on the surveys published in the last 15 days, certainly affected the Almasri case, having been made largely after the first accusations from the opposition and the consequent replicas by the government majority have emerged. To tell the truth, we cannot yet know if – and how – the fiery sessions on Wednesday in the Chamber and the Senate have influenced the political opinions of the Italians, but we can already start understanding what idea have made themselves of the story.

As we said, today’s picture appears extremely stable: Fratelli d’Italia is the first party (again under 30% after the peak touched last week), followed by a PD detached by just over 6 points. Third is the 5 Star Movement at 11.5%, followed by Forza Italia and Lega, separated just over half a point. But is it really possible that everything is so motionless, despite the rather sensational political events of the last few weeks? Let’s try to analyze the data of the individual institutes, taking into consideration the first two parties: for Noto, Fdi remained stable at 30.5% while the Democratic Party lost half a point (24%); According to Swg, however, from the beginning of January Fdi has lost slightly land (-0.3%), while the Democratic Party has grown a little (+0.4%); And again: for Ipsos, compared to the end of December, Fdi recovered 0.2% (climbing to 27.8%) while the PD 0.3% (taking 22.8%). To make it short: with the same “basket” of institutes considered, the consent to the parties remained practically unchanged compared to what we have already seen in early January.

This explains why the data of the last week constitute more an exception (due to a different composition of the survey of the surveys considered) than not a real variation. Not surprisingly, the subject of our analyzes is always, more than the punctual data and the short -term variations, the trends (the trends, in fact) that emerge in the medium/long period.

And by widening our gaze to the medium term we can see two trends, that is, that in the last month two parties seem to have lost slightly consent: on the one hand Forza Italia, who went from 9.5% to 9.2%; on the other, action, dropped from 2.9% to 2.6%. For Carlo Calenda’s party, however, this drop does not only mean moving away from the critical threshold of 3% (current barrier threshold for political elections), but also to be hooked by Italy Viva, which in the last few weeks has highlighted a trend positive.

Once clarified that the recent controversies on the Almasri case have neither benefited from the majority parties (as indirectly suggested by Giorgia Meloni) nor did he damage them (as supported by Paolo Mieli, citing the last SWG survey showing a negative variation of 0 , 2% in a week for Fdi), let’s understand what Italians really think about it on this case and, more generally, of the clash that has now become systemic between the government and the judiciary.

First of all, it must be said that the judiciary as a whole does not enjoy the confidence of the majority of Italians: lastly, the 2024 edition of the report “The Italians and the State” of Demos, which photographed for the magistrates, noted A trusted rate equal to 43%. Data confirmed by a recent survey by EMG, according to which only 39% of Italians give the judiciary a vote equal to or higher than the sufficiency (6 out of 10). In reality, the EMG survey also asked a more direct question, namely those who were right between Giorgia Meloni and the magistrates compared to recent controversies: to prevail, albeit not much, it would be the premier with 42% against 39% of the togas.

The well -known institute instead asked a rather articulated series of specific questions about the Almasri case. The photograph that emerges is that of a divided country, starting with the investigation against Meloni, Nordio, planted and Mantuan: for 46% an inappropriate act, for 44% appropriate. On the reasons for the liberation and the subsequent (immediate) repatriation of Almasri, the Italians seem not to believe the version of the Minister Nordio (according to which the act of the international criminal court presented form defects): only 21% believe that the Cause resided in a bureaucratic error, while 52% are the opinion that it was the prevalence of a “reason for state”. In general, however, 43% of Italians think that the Meloni government on the Almasri case acted by doing the interests of Italy, while 35% believe that national interest has not been done and 22% are not expressed. We will see if, in light of the opening of an investigation by the International Criminal Court precisely on the work of Italy and its executive, these percentages will be destined to change.

Note: The Youtrend/Ag supermedia is a weighted average of the national polls on voting intentions. Today’s weighting, which includes surveys made from 23 January to 5 February, was carried out on February 6 on the basis of the sample consistency, the date of realization and the method of collecting data.
The surveys considered were built by the Demopolis institutes (publication date: January 29), Eumetra (January 30), Euromedia (January 28), Ipsos (February 1), Noto (February 4), Piepoli (January 31), SWG (January 27 and February 3) and Tecnè (January 25 and February 1). The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettoleti.it.