The Munich Security Conference starts waiting for a plan for Ukraine

The German president, Frank Walter Steinmeier, opens this Friday the 61th edition of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) with all the attention placed on the words, silences and gestures of the new US vice president, JD Vance, with the European partners and with Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski. It has not been made public by the organization how, when and who will reveal the Master lines agreed by Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump In a telephone conversation to end the war in Ukraine, which is about to enter its fourth year, but in the geopolitics theater almost everything is timed. Thanks to the ‘Sherpa’.

The director of MSC, Christoph Heusgen, was one of them. He advised, represented and negotiated on behalf of Foreign Minister Angela Merkel for decades, hence last Monday, days before Putin and Trump arrived at an understanding about Ukraine, expressing her confidence that in Munich the “contours” of A peace agreement for Ukraine. “We hope – and we already have the corresponding signals – that Munich will serve to advance in La Paz in Ukraine,” he told the press themes of the conference. He added that “it remains to be seen if a plan will be announced at the conference” but “what I am sure is that the conference will serve to see the contours of said plan, and what parameters must appear in an agreement.”

Heusgen did not come into details about “the signals” received that they give so security, but the list of participants to this event reveals that They were just that, signs, a probe balloon. The participation of 450 ministers, prime ministers, presidents, analysts and lobists is expected, but in that list they are not all who are or all who are.

Since Russia proceeded to its “special operation” the conference closed its doors to the Kremlin representatives and that no one encouraged the discussions with their provocations as the Foreign Minister, Serguéi Lavrov. The tanned minister went from being the star of the MSC Sunday sector, year after year, to the letter that no European colleague or diplomat wanted to play. There is also no Russian delegation in this edition. The sherpas They adventure accordingly that Munich will not be the ramp to a true peace process, but could contribute some clarity to the European partners, who demand a place at the table.

MSC is the First Great World Summit of the New Administration in Washington Under Trump’s presidency and occurs in the midst of speculation that his agenda America First It could presage significant changes in the foreign policy of the United States. The US delegation, in addition to the vice president Jd vance will be composed of the Secretary of State for Foreign, Marco Rubio whose presence is in the air after his plane had to return to the Andrews base, on the outskirts of Washington, ninety minutes after his takeoff due to a mechanical problem.

“We are very happy to have a strong representation of both the administration of the new US government and the Congress,” said Heusgen, who will pass the MSC relay to the former NATO general secretary, Jens Stoltenberg.

“And so, the American point of view will also be presented on stage, as well as the European point of view and that of other regions. And then, and that is what Munich represents, there will be a dialogue, an argument on the many issues in question, “said Heusgen, who expressly cited Near East, Sudan and the Congo Democratic Republic in addition to latent tensions in the Indo-Pacific region.

European presence

The MSC, which will run until Sunday, will have a strong European presence starting with Olaf Scholz as chancellor of the host country. His rivals in the elections that will be held a week later, on the 23rd, they will also go to the capital of Bavara. The German conservative leader Friedrich MerzFavorite to become the next Chancellor, plans to meet this week with Vice President Vance, as well as with NATO general, Mark Rutte, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The European Union will send a high -level delegation headed by the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. He will be accompanied by the head of foreign policy of the block, Kaja Kallasthe president of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsolathe president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, and the first European Commissioner for Defense, Andrew Kubilius.

Defense expense

He defense expense It will be one of the issues that will be addressed in Munich in the framework of the Ukraine crisis and after Trump’s desire to increase 5% of GDP, an unattainable ribbon for many NATO partners. Nor is the US contribution of 5%.

The back of the panels and round tables that structure the MSC is the Munich 2025 security report, which analyzes “the long -range consequences of the multipolarization of the international order.” The report argues that “for many politicians and citizens around the world, a more multipolar world is very promising”, although the latest events suggest that “the negative effects of greater multipolarity are prevailing as divisions grow between the main powers and competition between different models of order is brought on the path of joint approaches to global crises and threats. “

The United States, China and Russia are seen as superpowers for an overwhelming majority in almost all countries, followed by the United Kingdom, Japan and Germany, said Tobias Bunde, director of the MSC investigation.