Six teachings from the federal election

The Union of Friedrich Merz became the strongest party in the election, but missed the 30 percent mark. The SPD Your historically worst result is incorporated, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will withdraw from the party leadership. The big winners: the partly right -wing extremist AfD and the Linke that surprisingly celebrates a comeback. BSW and FDP fall from the Bundestag. What can you take from the results?

There are no more stable conditions that shrink “center”

The times of the grand coalition are over, even if a Union SPD government will soon set the tone: the SPD has shrunk on a disaströse 16 percent, the Union falls under 30, these are historically bad results.

In Germany, what has long been a reality in Nordic parliaments: one Fragmentation the party landscape. Only this does not reflect in the Bundestag because of the five percent hurdle, small parties such as the BSW and the FDP are simply inexistent. Would have Sarah Wagenknecht had a few more thousand voters, CDU boss would have to Friedrich Merz Now talk to the SPD and the Greens.

Perhaps Berlin has to look a little more into the capitals in the east: there has long been ruled at the state level in unusual alliances, also in MinderheitsREGIERUNGEN. That will probably also be the future nationwide.

You don’t make AfD small if you let it be guided by her

Pensions, climate – topics that were hardly addressed in the election campaign. Instead, after the knife attack of an Afghan refugee in Aschaffenburg, it was all about asylum policy. A steep template for the xenophobic AfD. The Union that the election campaign with the topic Business wanted to play, in a controversial vote on a tightening of migration policy accepted the AfD’s approval.

Returns on the border and deportations to Afghanistan and Syria were promised by the Union, AfD, SPD and FDP and partly the Greens. However, without executing how this in view of the lack of personnel resources and the long procedure is really realistic. The promises of the oppositional AfD more.

She benefited from the uniform migration course of the parties – as well as that Linkethat was the only party for immigration. It withdrawn, if only from a small, progressive, urban milieu, SPD and Greens, – namely over 1.2 million.

To choose radically is normal: the AfD is not a “east problem”

A fifth of the voters has up to the right right -wing extremist chosen, twice as much as four years ago. This is not only a massive shift, but also a normalization: the stamp “right -wing radical” has put off for a long time, now it doesn’t matter to many voters – and the most extreme in the party how Björn Hump Pay even with it.

Should give the rest of the parties that the AfD in east to more than 38 percent has come, but that they also in West solidified – In Saarland it reached 21.6 percent, even in Bavaria almost 18 percent. She mainly speaks to workers, less educated men; But the voters now run through all layers. The AfD does not catch only with the over 70-year-olds-perhaps the greater historical awareness is the reason here.

The question is how big that AfD potential. Experts have had to further correct this value in recent years.

Uncompromising egopolitics does not work (more)

Two “Political Animals”-namely BSW boss Sahra Wagenknecht and FDP boss Christian Lindner – got a defeat on Sunday.

Wagenknecht, since 1989 in politics and for years a figurehead of the Left Party, which branded the slipping of their ex-party in identity policy “gender craze”, has one with the BSW left conservative Strength led to the European Parliament and the Landtag in the east. The content – no to arms deliveries to Ukraine, for Russian gas and higher pensions – are not reason for the party’s failure. There is approval, especially in East German federal states. Rather, it was due to the person Wagenknecht itself: the party is geared towards them, there are no other nationwide faces. The BSW only takes up new members if the federal leaders have approved it. In the government negotiations in the East German federal states, she mixed from Berlin. Wagenknecht does not want to cedge, even if she had hinted on other things before the election.

It is similar with Christian Lindner. He led the party very strictly One-man party Converted, but he hollowed out it in terms of content – in addition to Lindner’s favorite word “liberalism”, the FDP could not offer much in the election campaign, especially no conclusive concepts. He also did not use the fact that – even if he denies it – the traffic lights have broken down on purpose: in politically unstable times, people obviously choose none Hazardous.

The boys choose the edges

Would only be that under 25 year olds The right party would have been entitled to vote – with 25 percent, followed by the AfD with 21 percent. The change to the last Bundestag election 2021 is enormous: At that time, Greens and FDP among the young voters were the most popular parties with similar values. The “old” large parties Union and SPD only get 13 and 12 percent.

The trend towards the edges was already in the election European Parliament A year ago. This should not only be due to the parties’ social media presence-even if they have contributed significantly to success: Both parties are not only represented with credible personalities on the net during the election campaign, the opposition and the view of government participation with emotional Shoot videos against the government. And emotions such as anger and outrage are known to spread faster on the net. The success among the boys is also due to the weak, personnel resources of the major parties: a convincing, young young voice candidate who appeals to young voters.

The Germans are again interested in politics

82.5 percent The voter went to the urn on Sunday, as many as since 1987 no longer. This is a really good sign – people are interested in politics again, they no longer turn away, despite the extremely difficult times. However, the non-voters have mainly mobilized the AfD: they have more than two million bis-dato-native voters Right -wing populists chosen.