Brothers of Italy rises to 30.2%. Well M5S, the Democratic Party still below 23

If you just analyze the data on voting intentions, also today’s supermedia (as already happened on other recent occasions) brings good news for the majority of government. This applies in particular for Fratelli d’Italia, which records a new positive rebound by climbing to 30.2% – Best data in the supermedia since March 2023, almost two years ago.

A growth that drags almost entirely that of the entire majority coalition (+0.5% in two weeks) since the other parties of the center -right remain substantially stable. In the medium term, however, the most significant growth is that of the 5 Star Movement, which in the last 15 days has gained 0.5%. A positive trend that – unlike that of Fdi – is the daughter of an increase recorded by all the survey institutions present in the “basket” of today’s supermedia. The party of Giuseppe Conte, in fact, in recent weeks has grown by about half a point in the estimates of SWG and Tecnè, of a second -known point and 1.3% for Euromedia. But it is also a growth, in part, at the expense of the Democratic Party that in the same period of time retains – albeit slightly – going down again below 23%.

The drop in Elly Schlein’s party is also confirmed almost uniquely by 3 out of 4 institutes, having lost in the last period of about half a point according to Swg, Tecnè and Noto. In general, the set of parties that formed the center -left coalition to the policies of 2022 (in addition to the Democratic Party, Green/Left and Più Europe) appears a bit in suffering, giving consents on the one hand towards the M5S and on the other – even if to a lower extent – to the former third pole, that is, Italy Viva and action. As was said, therefore, for the center -right, the current one seems to be a rather favorable situation, at least if we consider the intentions of national voting. But there are some signs that make it difficult to believe that the Meloni government is experiencing a second honeymoon with voters, for example on a particularly “hot” theme such as the economy: according to a recent IPSOS survey, it is a question that worries two out of three Italians (67%) and on which 54% believe that the management of the executive is negative.

In addition, the judgments towards the Meloni government detected by the Demos Institute, in its recent political atlas of February, are the lowest since the beginning of the legislature: only 40% of Italians give the executive in office for a vote equal to or higher. On the other hand, the idea that the majority is very stable has never been so widespread: 61% of the interviewees foresee the Meloni government will reach the natural expiry of the legislature in 2027. But, in addition to the economy, there are at least two other issues that could prove to be thorny for the majority.

The first is that, dictated by the important developments in terms of foreign policy, of the creation of a single European army, and a possible involvement, in the near future, of the European military (including Italian ones) to guarantee peace in Ukraine. A theme on which Premier Meloni and Minister Crosetto – and even more Minister Salvini – expressed themselves with words ranging from caution to full -blown skepticism. Yet, according to SWG, the share of Italians in favor of creating a European army is increasing, and is equal to 57%. Not only that: the favorable to the sending of Italian soldiers in Ukraine as a deterrent to Russia are in number more than the opposite (49%against 37%) and are all the more among the voters of the majority parties (57%), which on this show a sensitivity not very dissimilar from that of the voters of opposition parties (60%).

Finally, another hot theme, culminating today with the national strike of magistrates, is that of justice. According to the recent polls made by EMG, the Italians are not against the Nordio reform which provides for the separation of careers, on the contrary: 52% consider it right, against 17% who consider it wrong. But support for mobilization – the protest, and finally the strike – of the togas, is a theme that divides the country: 35% support them, while 37% condemn them; But only 19% of citizens, two weeks ago, hoped that the strike scheduled for today was revoked, against a 33% indifferent. A sign that many Italians are solidarity with the judiciary even if, in fact, they share the contents of the government measures against which the magistrates protest so lively. And this too, in its own way, does not seem exactly a good sign for the executive.

Note: The Youtrend/Ag supermedia is a weighted average of the national polls on voting intentions. Today’s weighting, which includes surveys made from 13 to 26 February, was carried out on February 27 on the basis of the sample consistency, the date of realization and the method of collecting data. The surveys considered were carried out by the Euromedia institutions (publication date: February 18), Noto (February 25), SWG (17 and 24 February) and Tecnè (15, 19 and 21 February). The detailed methodological note of each survey considered is available on the official website www.sondaggipoliticoelettoleti.it.