A 2012 letter, found in the former secretary of state’s email, revealed that Israeli intelligence believed that the collapse of Assad would lead to a Sunni-Shiite war that would benefit Israel. A source quoted at the time claimed that it might even lead the Iranians to withdraw from their nuclear program. And how did Israel, according to the leak, intend to create the impression that it intended to attack Iran?
Nine years have passed since the email scandal involving former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, which erupted after it was discovered that she sent classified messages using unsecured devices during her tenure in the Obama administration, between 2008 and 2016. But now, in the wake of the fighting in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, the incident is returning to the forefront.
A document found in Clinton’s email, dated July 23, 2012, revealed that Israeli intelligence believes that the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime would ignite a Sunni-Shiite war that would benefit Israel.
It was published on the WikiLeaks website, which is known for publishing private and secret political and military content – from anonymous journalistic sources and leaks. The site also added, from an unnamed source, that British and French intelligence agencies believed that Israel thought that if Bashar al-Assad fell, Iran would lose its only ally in the Middle East and be isolated – which indeed happened.
It was also written at the time that the fall of the Assad regime could trigger a war between the Shiites and the Sunni majority in the region, and could attract Iran – which Israeli leaders do not see as a bad thing for Israel and its Western allies.
Because, according to the same source, such a scenario would distract Iran and could cause it to withdraw from its nuclear program for a long time. Moreover, several senior Israeli intelligence analysts believed at the time that such a turn of events could ultimately be a factor in the fall of the regime in Iran.
In addition, it was revealed that European officials were concerned that the ongoing conflict in Syria would lead to uprisings in neighboring countries – including Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey – that would bring Islamist regimes to power, instead of a moderate regime.
Israel was preparing contingency plans for a situation where these countries would be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood and perhaps more problematic groups like al-Qaeda. At the same time, there was concern that if Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, it would only worsen relations with neighboring countries.
Such an attack could also lead to a further deterioration in the global economy, for which Israel would be blamed. Such an attack would also unite the Iranian population against the United States and strengthen its ties with the ayatollahs, rather than weakening them. In addition, Europe at the time feared that Iranian efforts to build a nuclear arsenal would increase with the help of Russia and China.
In 2012, Turkish military commanders stated in private discussions that an Israeli attack on Iran would lead to a regional war “before the first Israeli airstrike reconnaissance aircraft returns to base in Israel.” Turkish and European intelligence estimates were that thousands of missiles and rockets would fall on Israel from Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.
The Turkish military estimated that Hezbollah forces in Syria and Lebanon had access to more than 200,000 rockets and ground-based missiles. Their military analysts also believed that an attack by such a force would overwhelm Israel’s defenses.
It was also leaked that Israel is not ready for an all-out war with Iran, but it may continue to threaten action and create the impression that it intends to launch an attack against Iran. The plan was to supposedly use a Saudi air base for the attack, and then leak the plan to the media – so that the West would understand that Israel intended to attack. But in the end, the plan did not come to fruition.