The proposal of a high fire between Russia and Ukraine raises a dilemma for Putin

In January, the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin still flatly rejected the idea of ​​a high tall in Ukraine.

However, after a month in which the president Donald Trump He gave a radical turn to American foreign policy and the Russian forces advanced in a key confrontation, the Kremlin now seems at least at least willing to consider the proposal of a 30 -day fire presented on Tuesday by Ukraine and the United States.

Dmitri Peskov, Putin spokesman, he told La Prensa on Wednesday that Kremlin was “studying carefully” the result of Tuesday’s conversations between the United States and Ukraine and his call to make a stop at one month.

He said he expected the United States to inform Russia in the next few days about “the details of the negotiations and the understandings that were achieved.”

He raised the possibility that there was another telephone call between Putin and Trump, implying that Kremlin considered the proposal to stop to fire as just a part of a broader strategy of diplomacy.

On Wednesday afternoon, Putin tried to show that he was in control of the situation when dressing in a military uniform and celebrating a televised meeting with his high military commanders in charge of expelling Ukraine from the Russian region of Kursk, where Russia has made progress in recent weeks.

He ordered his troops to defeat Ukraine in the region “in the shortest possible time”, a measure that, if successful, would deprive Ukraine of a key point of influence in any negotiation with Russia.

In the last month, Putin has experienced a vertiginous change in his geopolitical destiny after Trump reorient American foreign policy in favor of Russia, antagonized with the United States allies and lashed out at the president of Ukraine, Volodímir Zelenskiin the White House.

However, the appearance of a joint high proposal to the United States and Ukraine complicates the stage for Putin.

The proposal elevates the tension between its wishes of a high -range victory in Ukraine and approaching Trump.

While Trump says he wants to end the war as soon as possible, Putin has pointed out that he will not stop fighting until he obtained important concessions from the West and kyiv, including the promise that Ukraine will not enter NATO and that the alliance will reduce its presence in central and east Europe.

On January 20, when he congratulated Trump for his inauguration, Putin made it clear that the goal of any conversation about Ukraine should not be “a high to the brief fire or some kind of respite.”

Russia, he said, sought “a long -term peace based on the respect of the legitimate interests of all peoples, of all the nations that live in this region.”

The analysts claim that Putin’s opposition to a high tall was due to the simple calculation that, with the Russian forces gaining ground on the battlefield, stopping the fighting without obtaining concessions would only make Moscow lose its advantage.

However, the February 12 phone call between Putin and Trump, as well as the subsequent alignment of the White House with Russia in the United Nations and in other forums, could have affected the calculation of Putin, increasing their desire to look good with Trump, according to analysts.

This raises a delicate balance For the Kremlin.

Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, said that Kremlin could be tempted to accept a truce that was “tactically unfavorable but strategically favorable” to “demonstrate that she is a peacemaker.”

Although the Russians were not present at Tuesday’s conversations in Yeda, Saudi Arabia, the Trump government has maintained its relationship with the Kremlin.

John Ratcliffe, director of the CIA, spoke on Tuesday with his Russian counterpart, Serguéi Narishkin, the Russian external intelligence agency reported Wednesday.

Steve WitkoffTrump’s envoy who met with Putin for several hours last month, plans to reach Russia shortly, according to two people familiar with the matter requested by anonymity to talk about internal plans.

On Tuesday, Trump told journalists that he planned to talk to Putin this week, and on Wednesday he told reporters at the White House that his negotiators were on their way.

“Right now, while we talk, there are people who are going to Russia,” Trump said during a meeting with Ireland Prime Minister.

“And hope we can get a stop to the fire of Russia.”

On Wednesday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, in a sign of the Moscow approach campaign to Trump’s side, made public a 90 -minute interview that the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Affairs, SERGUÉI LAVROVhe granted three American videoblogueros, including Andrew Napolitano, who was a Fox News personality.

Lavrov, in English, praised the Trump government for having invested the “departure of the Christian values” of the Democrats, and said that Russia was prepared for the “normal relations” that the United States offered.

“Of course, it is not impossible for Russians to accept it,” said Samuel Charap, Russia analyst at the Rand Corporation, about the 30 -day offer.

“Not because they want a high and temporary fire, but because they now have an interest in relations with Washington.”

Putin’s calculation could also be affected by the advances made by Russia in recent days to get Ukrainian soldiers out of Kursk, The Russian border region where Ukraine occupied several hundred square kilometers of territory in a surprise incursion last August.

Zelenski had said that he planned to use that territory as a currency in future conversations, but Kremlin said he would refuse to negotiate while Ukraine maintained the territory.

With most of the Kursk region again in Russian hands, Putin no longer risks to look bad if he accepts a fire that would leave Ukraine in control of an area of ​​Russian territory, said Serguéi Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow.

Another incentive to accept, said Markov, was to make sure that Russia “does not seem like a war man” in the eyes of non -western countries that have avoided imposing sanctions on Moscow.

However, he said, he hoped that Putin insisted on establishing previous conditions, such as the interruption of the supply of weapons to Ukraine while the high to the fire lasts.

“It is very likely Russia say: ‘Yes, but… ‘”Markov said in a telephone interview.

On Wednesday, the popular Russian pruest bloggers did not show much enthusiasm for the stop to fire.

Some expressed concern that a truce could lead to a larger agreement with the United States that, in their opinion, would betray the original objectives of the war and end up leading to a Russian retreat from Ukraine.

A blogger that calls himself Alex Parker Returns argued in a Wednesday publication that a peace agreement would allow Ukraine “to leave easily and prepare for the next assault.”

Ivan Nechepurenko collaborated with reports.

Anton Troianovski is the bureau chief in Moscow of the Times. Write about Russia, Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia.