Pope Francis has shaped the next conclave, but his successor could not continue his legacy

These 12 years of pontificate, however, have found him in a bed of the Gemelli Hospital in Rome, hospitalized since February 14 for pneumonia. Although in recent days, the 88 -year -old Pope has presented a slight improvement, his condition is still delicate, so for weeks he has been speculating about what would happen if the end of his mandate arrives.

The Cardenalicio College is the body in charge of choosing the pontiffs and on it they have put their eyes, since their current composition could give an idea of ​​how the chips will move in case of a conclave.

It is not exaggerated to say that Francisco has shaped the Cardinal College, since he has chosen 80% of the cardinals, which also come from 71 countries from almost every corner of the world, removing weight to the traditional European squares to focus more on Africa and Asia, where Catholicism comes up.

But the fact that Francisco has chosen most of the sloping ones who will choose his successor does not mean that the next Pope will be someone tailored. Due to geographical diversity, many of the cardinals are not known, which increases uncertainty and makes the result unpredictable, since we already know that many negotiations are handled in the vatican’s halls, and alliances and affinities are usually key to reaching agreements and increase or reduce support to certain “papable” candidates.

A reformist Pope

After the resignation of Benedict XVI, who felt that he had too many obstacles to be able to clean the image of a church overwhelmed by the complaints of abuse and corruption, Francisco had to take the post to deal with all those earrings. Therefore, he insisted on making reforms and putting a personal seal to each of his gestures and appointments to be able to restructure the Vatican and the Government of the Church, printing a missionary spirit inspired by the Jesuit tradition and in the universality of the Church.

To this added his deepest concerns, such as the environment and immigration, colliding with the political agenda of the most conservative sectors in Europe and the United States. “The Church has received from Pope Francis the awareness of being a truly global church, not only a Catholicism with European, western traction. It is a change of time, a church of the third millennium, and this creates many tensions,” Massimo Faggioli, professor of the Department of Theology and Religious Sciences of the Villanova University, in Philadelphia, tells “El País”.

At the same time, the most progressive sectors claim that they have not made enough changes, such as the end of the celibacy of priests or that women can officiate masses. And others point out that he has governed in an authoritative and impulsive manner, relegating those who disallow him.

The ‘Papables’

There are several names that have been playing as possible successors to the throne of Pedro, or that will be very influential for their choice.

In the case of the most conservatives are Cardinals Raymond Burke (United States), Gerhard Müller (Germany) and Robert Sarah (Guinea), who have openly criticized the reforms of the Pontiff and his approach to the LGBT community, the divorced and the request that women have greater participation in the ecclesiastical hierarchy. None of them are probably chosen, but they can exert their influence to bring the direction of the conclave towards a deep change with respect to Francisco.

There are also other conservatives, less furibly, such as Hungarian Péter Erdo, archbishop of Budapest and Cardinal Czech Dominik Duka.

“The Pope has meant for many people a way of accessing Jesus extremely concrete and simple”

Mons. Carlos Castillo, Cardinal and Archbishop of Lima

On the side of those who are more consistent with Francisco’s line, there are Cardinal Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle – who tell him the ‘Francisco Asian’- and the Italian Matteo Zuppi. In the pools there is also the current Secretary of State, Pietro Parolin, who knows the woven and manage of the Vatican and is considered a mediator who can dialogue between one side and another of the crack.

During the town hall of last year, the Pope emphasized that the Cardinal College must resemble a “symphony orchestra”, where each member, from various cultural and geographical contexts, contributes to “the symphony” of the Church and its unity.

In the Wanderer Walking Blog, which specializes in themes of the Catholic Church, an analysis of the cardinals designated by Francisco is made and not all have the same opening line. In fact, among those of the most remote countries of Rome there are several moderate and others that incline more conservative positions, as well as others much more progressive or open to deeper reforms, so it is a very varied cardinal school geographically, but also ideologically.

The cardinals designated by Francisco They will undoubtedly make their weight feel and want to preserve the legacy of the pontiff that raised them, but maybe they consider that it is not the time of more changes to calm the waters.

Of course, nothing is said, but Vatican intrigues – which always feed books and movies – will be order in one of the most unpredictable conclaves in recent history.

In 12 years of pontificate, perhaps a Pope was asked to resume credibility in a Catholic Church hit by corruption and allegations of abuse. For some, their reforms were too fast and structural, for others too slow and contradictory. Nobody will ever be satisfied. But what Francisco changed was the spirit of a church that needed to be more pastoral and open to dialogue.