Poland proposes to be a place to place American nuclear weapons or develop nuclear capacity, but experts say there are too many barriers to this ambition.
Polish President Andrzej Duda in the interview with Financial Times On March 13 proposes that Donald Trump’s counterparts can transfer US nuclear weapons in the country or Western Europe to Poland. He added that he discussed this idea with Mr. Trump’s special envoy about Ukraine Kellogg recently.
“The NATO border has moved to the East since 1999, so 26 years later, there should be similar shifts to NATO’s infrastructure,” Duda said.
President Duda’s comments came after he stated last month that Poland was willing to welcome the US military if Germany no longer needed them.
Observers say that Polish leaders are hoping to revive the nuclear sharing idea that he once proposed to the former President Joe Biden government in 2022 but failed. Duda said where the US nuclear weapon was decided by Mr. Trump, but note that Russian President Vladimir Putin once stated the possibility of transferring nuclear weapons to Belarus.
“Russia does not even hesitate about the idea of transferring nuclear weapons into Belarus. They do not ask anyone permission,” he said.
Duda’s call has shown increasing worries in Poland as Russia’s position emerged between the effort to negotiate peace in Ukraine that Mr. Trump was promoting. Duda, who was also the supreme commander of the Polish armed forces, repeated the comments of Prime Minister Donald Tusk that Warsaw could be better protected with the idea of expanding the “nuclear umbrella” of France for European allies.
The position of nuclear powers and in the US, Russia places nuclear weapons in Europe. Graphic: WSJ
A few days before Duda’s call, Prime Minister Tusk told the National Assembly that it was time to think about developing nuclear weapons spontaneously.
A public opinion survey on February 21 pointed out that 52.9% of Poland supported the national idea to own nuclear weapons, while 27.9% protested. The support of the nuclear issue may increase if Poland’s security situation worsens, especially if Russia has won a conflict with Ukraine and the US to decrease in Europe.
However, experts warn that Poland’s nuclear sharing may be considered as a provocative act of Russia.
Poland was the place where the Soviet nuclear warhead was placed during the Cold War. But the reserve of this weapon again on the territory near the Russian border and controlled by the US will be considered by the Kremlin as a serious threat, according to Raphael Minder, analyst of FT.
If the US accepts the request, these will be the nuclear weapons deployed to NATO members with the border of the Russian border. Poland shared a border of more than 200 km long with Russia’s Kaliningrad region. The United States is now said to be the arrangement of tactical nuclear weapons at 6 bases in Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Türkiye, according to NATO’s nuclear sharing program.
US Vice President JD Vance seems to deny Poland’s proposal in the interview with Fox News On the evening of March 13. “I have not talked to the president about that issue, but I would be shocked if he supported to expand nuclear weapons to eastern Europe,” he said.
Mr. Vance accused former President Biden “taking us into nuclear conflict” and said that the Trump administration was pursuing “a completely different approach”.
Artur Kacprzyk, an expert at the Institute of Polish International issues, said the nuclear comment of the country’s leaders reflects political issues.
“It is possible that the Polish government may raise the nuclear plan to convince the United States not to weaken the security of Poland, by the time the Trump administration improves relations with Russia and shows signs of reducing military presence in Europe,” Kacprzyk said.
However, the expert said that the idea of Poland developed its own nuclear program was almost unrealistic, for both logistics and geopolitical reasons. He said that, even though Poland could produce some devices within a few years if determined, it would take a lot of time for the country to have significant nuclear arsenal. Poland currently does not have many nuclear technology facilities other than the old Marie Research reactor near the capital Warsaw.
He also warned Poland’s risk of Russia’s vision. “While pursuing the program, Poland will face the risk of Russia using force to prevent them from succeeding,” he said.
Polish President Andrzej Duda spoke to the National Assembly in Warsaw on 7/3. Image: AFP
It is not possible to predict how the allies will react if Poland actually pursues nuclear weapons. However, the antitators warn the theoretically, Poland will face sanctions or isolated for violating the Treaty that does not disseminate nuclear weapons (NPT).
Fabian Hoffmann, a nuclear strategy expert at Oslo University, added that without the help from a country capable of nuclear deterrence like the US or at least strong civil nuclear capacity like Japan and South Korea, Poland will not be able to enrich fuel to the level of weapons.
The debate about Nuclear in Poland is a testament to the great insecurity in Europe on the prospect of the US nuclear umbrella weakened or completely removed under Mr. Trump.
“What Europeans do not have is nuclear culture. They don’t know that because they always think that Americans will raise their umbrellas,” said Michel Yakovleff Michel, former Deputy Commander of the NATO force in Europe.