The Kremlin warned Sunday, on the eve of talks in Saudi Arabia with the Americans: discussions for peace in Ukraine are only in their “beginning” and promises to be “difficult”. The resolution of the conflict “in 24 hours”, promised by Donald Trump during his presidential campaign, is only a distant chimera.
What is the subject of negotiations?
They are multiple, as the interests of the two belligerents diverge. Ukraine pushes, under pressure from the administration of Donald Trump, for a complete ceasefire. This option for the moment seems to be difficult to envisage for Vladimir Putin as long as Ukrainian forces are on Russian soil, in the border region of Koursk. kyiv knows this and hopes to “at least” an agreement on a partial break with Russia on the energy sector, infrastructure and the Black Sea.
But in an interview on Russian television on Sunday, the spokesman for the Russian presidency did not mention this subject. However, that was what Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump had agreed last week during their highly anticipated telephone interview and with ultimately very limited effects.
On the other hand, Dmitri Peskov believes that the “main subject of discussion” on Monday would be the resumption of the cereal agreement in the Black Sea. It was in force between the summer of 2022 and 2023 to allow Ukraine to export its cereals, vital for global food. Russia had withdrawn from it after a year, deploring that Westerners do not respect their commitments intended to soften the Russian exports of agricultural products and fertilizers. “Our negotiators will be ready to discuss nuances around this problem,” he said. Vladimir Putin, whose army is advancing on the ground despite heavy losses, therefore seems to play the watch.
Who will be present?
Symbol of these differences, the Ukrainian delegation will be led by the Minister of Defense Roustem Oumerov, while Vladimir Putin decided to send Grigori Karassine, an ex-career senator, and Sergei Besseda, a framework of the Russian security services, the FSB. Lower profiles, which cut with the CV Russian envoys during the first Russian-American discussions in Saudi Arabia in mid-February.
What can we expect?
Dmitri Peskov has already tempered expectations around these discussions: “This is a very complex subject and there is a lot of work to do,” he said, believing that these negotiations would be “difficult”.
For his part, a senior Ukrainian official by the way of discussions, had assured AFP on Friday that the discussions between Ukrainians and Americans were going to focus on the “technical” aspects of a partial temporary stop of the fighting. “The plan was to start with (we), the Ukrainians today (Sunday), then with the Russians tomorrow, and then perhaps again with us, if they accept the ceasefire,” said this senior official. On Sunday, “key points, including energy” were discussed, reported the Minister of Defense Roustem Oumerov, adding that Ukraine was trying to achieve its objective of “just and lasting peace”.
Beyond the resolution of the conflict, very unlikely in the short term, American and Russian will speak business. The two major powers have come closer since mid-February by commercial interest. “We believe that the potential for mutually beneficial cooperation in a large number of areas is difficult to estimate between our two countries,” said Dmitri Peskov. We can disagree on one point, but that does not mean that we had to deprive ourselves of mutual advantages. “However, this new bilateral relationship is only in its infancy: the Kremlin spokesperson expects this” that no sanction is lifted “soon.
Trump’s emissary expects “real progress” in discussions on Monday.