But will military action really stop Iran’s nuclear program? As the days go by, most experts’ forecast is dwindling: such an act – whether Israeli, American or integrated – you may be able to delay, but not destroy the program. And worse – it may also expedite Tehran.
“It is very difficult to eliminate the program, unless you talk about the occupation or replacing a regime,” says Justin Bronk, a senior expert at the British Rusi Institute. “The attack at most will bring the watch back a few years – nothing more.”
According to the news agency, since the US withdrawal from the Nuclear Agreement in 2018, by then -President Donald Trump, Iran -rich uranium to peak levels, and sharply cut collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (Saba). Today, it is estimated that the time needed to create a nuclear bomb – is a matter of days.
In Israel, too, the picture understands: the danger is immediate. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday from his visit to the Gaza Strip: “” I want to tell you what we are fighting for and why we are fighting: It’s a post issued by Iran’s tyrant, Ayatollah Khamenei, today, explaining why Israel must be destroyed.
According to the report, even the United Nations Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) does not know where some of the critical equipment is held, such as the censorship components enriching uranium. Point, but this is a completely different scope.
The two main enrichment sites in Iran – Natanz (underground) and Pordo (hewn on the mountain) – require an attack that does not exist today to Israel, even with the American piercing bombs in her hands. Only the US holds the huge MOP bombs – and the aircraft that can bear them.
“An American attack can cause more damage to Israeli assault, but in both cases it is rejection, not eliminating – and there is a real risk that Iran will approach Iran to the bomb,” Eric Brore from the Institute of Nuclear Submit, and formerly an American intelligence analyst.
Even if they can eliminate some of the sites – the knowledge that Iran has accumulated cannot be destroyed. According to American experts, every assault will cause a serious counter -reaction from Tehran – including the expulsion of the Saba inspectors, promoting the nuclear program to underground, and perhaps a final decision to produce a bomb.
Iranian senior, Ali Mahdri, the supreme leader’s adviser, warned last week: “If the threats continue – Iran will take deterrence, including the expulsion of inspectors and the cessation of cooperation with the Saba.” The worrying example according to Reuters is North Korea, also deported the inspectors – and then performed a nuclear experiment. “If you attack Iran – she will go wild, remove the inspectors and try to accelerate the production of the bomb,” Games Acton estimates from the Carnegie Institute.
Political officials in Israel estimate that there is a quiet race between two strategies – military attack against tough diplomacy. While Trump signals a new agreement – with a distinct threat to attack – time is increasing. The IDF has impressive capabilities, but it is a mission that may definitely require broad American assistance. In the Israeli defense establishment, the developments are monitored – and know well: Each assault will also require a response to the day after.