The Russian army made its biggest advance on the front in Ukraine in a year in November, according to AFP analysis of data provided by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which works with the Critical Threats Project (CTP).
In one month, Russia took 701 km² from the Ukrainians, the second largest advance after that of November 2024 (725 km²), apart from the first months of war in spring 2022, when the front line was very mobile. At the end of November, the Russian army occupied 19.3% of Ukrainian territory. Some 7%, Crimea and areas of Donbas, were already controlled by Moscow before the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022.
The area of conquered lands includes areas controlled by Russia, according to kyiv and military observers, as well as those claimed by Moscow’s army.
5,400 km² gained since the start of the year
Since the start of the year, Russia has gained nearly 5,400 km² of land in Ukraine, almost 2,000 km² more than over the same period the previous year.
In November, however, Russian progress continued to slow down in the Donetsk region, the epicenter of the fighting between the two camps and whose transfer by kyiv to Moscow was part of the original United States plan to end the war.
Moscow gained some 130 km² there last month, compared to more than double the average over the other months of the year, in this region of eastern Ukraine that the Kremlin now controls more than 81%.
There, Moscow’s troops are currently fighting, among other things, for the capture of the city of Pokrovsk, a key position whose loss would significantly affect Ukrainian defenses and logistics.
On the other hand, it is in the Zaporizhia region, in the south of the country, that Russian forces progressed the most in November with a gain of 272 km², as much as over the previous four months combined. In the vicinity of Dnipropetrovsk, in the center-east, they have eaten up almost 200 km² of land. Russia claimed in September 2022 the annexation of the Zaporizhia region in addition to those of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson.
Diplomatic advances
Alongside progress on the ground, diplomacy is in full swing with the publication in mid-November of an American plan to resolve the conflict after nearly four years of fighting. This 28-point plan was seen by many as too favorable to Moscow. Its initial version was then amended after consultations with the Europeans and the Ukrainians and must now be presented to the Kremlin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared last week that his country would only cease hostilities if kyiv’s forces withdrew from the territories it claims to annex, without naming them, a withdrawal formally ruled out by the Ukrainian presidency.
American envoy Steve Witkoff is expected in Moscow on Tuesday to discuss this American plan with Russian officials.