Emmanuel Macron’s plane had barely taken off from China when the Beijing army was already deployed around the island of Taiwan. The Taiwanese Defense Ministry detected 8 Chinese warships and 42 Chinese fighter jets in the Taiwan Strait on Saturday after Beijing surrounded the island. Valérie Niquet, Asia specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Research and author of “China in 100 questions” (Éd. Tallandier, 2022), returns for Le Parisien to these new military exercises.
How to interpret these Chinese maneuvers in the aftermath of the visits of Macron and von der Leyen?
VALERIE NIQUET. They obviously respond to the visit of Tsai Ing-wen, the Taiwanese president, to the United States. China had warned that it would retaliate. For Xi Jinping’s image, there is no question of letting such an event pass. He wants to establish himself as a very powerful leader whom no one can resist. They have already organized crossings of military vehicles through the Taiwan Strait for a few days. After the departure of Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen, they added this incursion to “impress” the opponent.
There was a willingness on the part of China not to do so during the visit of European leaders, because Beijing is still trying to restore its image in Europe. But for the Chinese, it is a normal response to any progress on the side of Taiwan on the international scene. The aim is to put an end to the fact that more and more countries are appearing alongside the island, as we have seen in particular with the visit of foreign parliamentarians, or recently that of the German Minister of Education. . There is a seesaw movement: Taiwan is less and less isolated and more and more legitimate.
How is this type of exercise perceived in Taiwan? Are the people worried?
What may worry the Taiwanese is that these maneuvers have been reinforced. China sends planes into the Taiwan Air Identification Zone almost every day. It’s not their airspace, it’s remote, but there are daily incursions to alert Taiwanese forces. It must be remembered that in August 2022, big maneuvers had already taken place to try to dissuade Nancy Pelosi, president of the House of Representatives in the United States, from coming to Taiwanese soil. Today, there are again, with the visit of Tsai Ing-wen. This is becoming the norm for Chinese reactions.
However, military maneuvers do not mean war. China wants “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, even if it would actually be a conquest, because the island has never belonged to the communist regime. But Beijing has always said that if Taiwan declared its independence, then there would be recourse to force to obtain reunification.
The problem for Xi Jinping is that China does not have the military means to conquer Taiwan. This would seriously endanger the survival of the communist regime. So they resort to military maneuvers and pressure to try to panic the population and instil the idea that if there is no change in the situation, then there is a risk of war. It is also a way, they hope, to dissuade other countries from getting closer to Taiwan.
Should we fear an escalation between the two armies?
Things should probably calm down. There will undoubtedly be maneuvers regularly, each time China wants to protest: it is a tool of pressure. China’s great fortune is that rival powers, whether the United States or Europe, do not seek conflict. Taiwanese or American military aircraft will be extremely cautious before any response.
But we cannot exclude that a Chinese driver tries to make contact in isolation and that there is an accident. It’s always a risk. But that does not automatically lead to war, especially if the adversary is reasonable and does not seek conflict at all costs. It is certain that for the Chinese regime, Taiwan is a real challenge. It all depends on Xi Jinping: will he endure being openly challenged for long?