China increases global influence as America retreats

The confrontation over tariffs, rare earths and export restrictions between the US and China ended with a temporary truce between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping during a meeting in South Korea in October.

And many in China’s foreign policy circles and analysts believe that the time has come for the country. They believe that US-China relations have entered a new era, in which Beijing proves its strength by responding firmly to threats from Washington and forcing the US to step down.

“The US-China relationship has witnessed a structural change. The US side recognizes China’s strength. Washington has learned to be more pragmatic when dealing with Beijing and show a more respectful attitude,” said Wang Yong, director of the Center for American Studies at Peking University.

During the meeting in Korea, Mr. Trump surprised Mr. Xi by talking about the G2 model, in which the US and China jointly govern world affairs. This is the concept of “new type of major country relations” that Mr. Xi mentioned during his meeting with Mr. Barack Obama in Sunnylands, California in 2013.

However, Mr. Obama at that time rejected this idea, viewing it as an act of abandoning US allies and Washington’s global role. He has promoted a “pivot to Asia” strategy to counter China’s growing influence in the region.

Wang Dong, executive director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University, said that Trump’s now endorsement of the G2 concept signals US recognition of China’s new status. He added that if the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement prevails and the Trump administration truly abandons the idea of ​​strategic competition with China, it will mark the most fundamental change in American thinking since the Cold War.

“MAGA ideology is a farewell to liberal internationalism, disrupts the liberal order, pushes the US to retreat from excessive global commitments, as well as turn its attention back to the Western Hemisphere. It is a new concept and will be the new normal for many years to come,” Wang said.

Many Chinese officials believe that in this new environment, Mr. Trump seems more interested in selling American soybeans to China than intervening in the Taiwan issue.

In a phone call with Mr. Trump on November 24, Mr. Xi declared that “Taiwan’s return to China is an indispensable part of the post-war international order”. In a post on Truth Social after the conversation, Mr. Trump did not mention the island and wrote that “the relationship between us and China is extremely strong.”

The perception that the Taiwan issue is no longer so important to the US may be the reason why China reacted strongly to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments in early November. Ms. Takaichi then told parliament that the scenario of Taiwan being attacked could trigger Tokyo’s military response.

China immediately condemned and imposed a series of economic and diplomatic sanctions on Japan, demanding that the country’s leaders withdraw their comments.

Prime Minister Takaichi on December 3 moved to cool tensions by saying that Japan maintains the stance on China’s sovereignty over the island of Taiwan as in the 1972 Japan-China Joint Declaration. In the joint statement, Beijing “reaffirmed that Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory” and the Japanese government “fully understands and respects that stance”.

China’s new state of confidence appears in the context of many changes in US foreign policy during Mr. Trump’s term. Mr. Trump’s friendly stance towards Russia has disappointed European allies, while his trade and tariff policies have worried some allies in Asia.

In an interview on November 10 with Fox Newswhen asked about the recent China-Japan tensions, Mr. Trump said “many of our allies are not friends. Our allies take advantage of us on trade more than China.”

Wu Xinbo, head of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the US’s strong policy towards countries, especially on trade, opens up new economic and political opportunities for China globally.

“In the past, technology mainly came from the West, but now there is more and more technology from China, especially in the clean energy sector. This creates favorable conditions for China’s trade and investment relations. Then there will be politics,” Wu said.

China’s power over the years has been demonstrated through many technologies shaping the future, from artificial intelligence to high-speed rail to clean energy.

The success of DeepSeek, China’s artificial intelligence (AI) model, is a testament to the country’s technological prowess amid restrictions on imports of advanced chips.

China’s regaining blue skies for Beijing and many other large cities, where the air was once seriously polluted, is also considered a great success for the country’s electric vehicle adoption policy and strict emissions standards.

“Beijing used to be known as the smog capital. But now I’m surprised when I smell diesel exhaust in an American or European city, because you won’t see that smell in China anymore. I hope it can be enough proof to convince the world,” said Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Environmental and Public Affairs in Beijing.

However, some Chinese scholars are still more cautious when assessing America’s position as well as China’s chances of rise.

“Mr. Trump is a pragmatic person and he sees China rising in both hard power and soft power. By focusing on the Americas instead of pivoting to Asia and spreading out on many fronts, as well as keeping a peaceful relationship with China, the Americans can still maintain a dominant position in global affairs for another 20-30 years,” said Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Center for China and Globalization research organization in Beijing.