Hassan Rouhani admits: Iran’s regional air defense system has failed

According to Rouhani, “the skies above Iran have become completely safe for the ‘enemy’. We no longer have a real deterrent. Neighboring countries – Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan – operate in airspace under the control of the United States and Israel.” According to him, there were references to the fact that the regional setup designed to keep the Israeli Air Force away from Iran’s borders did not function as expected.

Rouhani served as commander of Iran’s air defense system in the years 1985-1991, and in his two terms as president (2013-2021) domestically produced air defense systems were exposed, including Bavar-373 and Khordad-15. During his second term, Tehran also worked to establish air defense capabilities in neighboring countries, as part of a concept of a front layer of defense against Israel.

However, since 2013, Israel has conducted a continuous air campaign against Iranian entrenchment in Syria, hitting Iranian targets and weapons convoys destined for Hezbollah. The Syrian air defense systems, including Russian-made systems, failed to consistently prevent the attacks. The report states that Iran tried to strengthen the Syrian air defense, among other things through agreements and the transfer of equipment, but these efforts did not mature into a substantial change. Similar attempts to provide defense capabilities to Hezbollah did not significantly affect the operational capability of the Israeli Air Force either.

The regional campaign after the Hamas attack on October 7 led, according to the analysis, to cumulative damage to the capabilities of the “Axis of Resistance”, including assassinations, airstrikes and damage to weapons caches. At the same time, Israel also directly attacked targets in Iran, which deepened the damage to its air defense system. Even in Iraq, according to Forbes, Iranian attempts to encourage the development of an air defense system that would help curb Israeli activity did not bear fruit. During the war, no Iraqi fire was reported at Israeli planes crossing the country’s airspace.

According to Forbes, Rouhani’s admission reflects a broader reality: Iran’s attempts to design a regional air defense system that would serve as an additional protective layer against Israeli attacks – have not been successful.