The West is warning: a broad Israeli attack could collapse Lebanon

The author points out that if Israel chooses to break the fragile peace and embark on a broad move, the scenario that worries Western parties does not amount to the military defeat of Hezbollah – Israel’s stated goal – but rather the collapse of the entire Lebanese state infrastructure. Al-Arjan emphasizes that this is not a conventional war between armies, but a military operation being carried out in a country that is already in a deep existential crisis, so the damage could be systemic and long-term.

According to the analysis presented in “Al-Arab”, behind the official Israeli rhetoric regarding the “restoration of security for the residents of the north” and the dismantling of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal, analysts identify a broader goal: an attempt to reshape the political consciousness in Lebanon. Israel, it is claimed, is no longer just asking for a geographical buffer zone south of Litani, but a political buffer zone – one that will bring Lebanese society, based on all its evidence, to the conclusion that the existence of a “state within a state” exacts a devastating price on the entire country.

In this context, writes Al-Arjan, the potential Israeli attack is not only aimed at military capabilities, but also at Lebanon’s civil and economic foundations. Disruption of ports, airports, bridges and vital infrastructure is seen as part of a strategy aimed at making Hezbollah an unbearable existential burden in the eyes of the Lebanese public itself. It is, according to him, pressure exerted from within, based on the assumption that the host company will ultimately reject the price involved in continuing the organization’s activities.

However, in an article in the Qatari newspaper, it is emphasized that both Israel and the West are aware that the real centers of decision are not in Beirut or Dahiya, but in Tehran. In view of the inability of the Lebanese state to influence Hezbollah’s sources of power, it is claimed that Israel has practically abandoned the idea of ​​”disarmament”, and is moving to a strategy of weakening the state framework within which the organization operates.

Al-Arjan points out that in the Arab world in recent years, more loudly than before, the claim that Lebanon has become an arena enslaved to regional interests that go beyond its borders has been heard. Repeated attempts by Lebanese governments, with Arab backing, to reduce Hezbollah’s independence of military decision-making have repeatedly encountered deep political and ideological barriers, which reinforces the assessment that internal solutions alone do not provide an answer to a problem of external origin.

From a European point of view, as “Al-Arab” writes, this is a particularly worrying scenario. Today’s Lebanon is fundamentally different from that of 2006: the economy is on the verge of collapse, the banking system is paralyzed, and the state is having difficulty fulfilling basic functions. A broad Israeli attack could lead to the collapse of the last institutions that are still functioning, led by the Lebanese army, which is seen as the last anchor of stability.

The possible result, according to the article, is not necessarily the elimination of Hezbollah – an organization accustomed to operating in conditions of destruction – but the transformation of Lebanon into a completely failed state. This fear is at the heart of the Western concern about extensive waves of immigration that will reach the shores of Cyprus, Greece and Italy, from a country that has lost its ability to provide security and a future for its citizens.

In summing up his words in “Al-Arab”, Abdel Karim Suleiman Al-Arjan writes that Israel’s pursuit of security on its northern border could create alongside it a continuous center of instability, one that even fences and physical obstacles could not contain. According to him, history shows that militias may survive in the midst of destruction – but states are the ones that tend to collapse.