Airlift capacity could become America’s fatal weakness

In a report published by the US-based Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in mid-month, retired Air Force colonel Robert Owen warned that the current size and condition of the US transport force is at risk of not being able to meet the requirements set out in wartime.

Owen flew C-130 transport aircraft in a 28-year career, and also held leadership positions at the Air Transport Command (AMC) of the US Air Force.

“When clashing with a peer opponent, the transport force may not be enough to meet the needs of transportation, supply and other logistics activities,” he said.

Not only has the number decreased, the US Air Force’s transport fleet also lacks diversity and is unsuitable for high-intensity conflicts. The country mainly depends on C-17 strategic transport aircraft, converted passenger aircraft and helicopters to transport soldiers and goods between combat zones, but much of the fleet is decades old and gradually becoming obsolete.

Right from the end of the Cold War, the US Air Force had a specific plan to replace the transport force, even though they were much younger at that time.

Some aircraft such as the C-17 have operated beyond their expected lifespan. The C-5M Galaxy, the largest transport aircraft in US Air Force service, has an average age of 37 years and a low mission readiness rate. “The majority of the US Air Force’s transport aircraft fleet, as well as other important assets, are aging rapidly,” former Colonel Owen warned.

In March, General David Allvin, then commander of the US Air Force, revealed that the average age of all aircraft in the military had increased from 17 in 1994 to 32 in 2024.

Many US military leaders also expressed concern about air transport capacity, admitting that it has decreased significantly compared to the time of the Desert Storm campaign in the early 1990s.

“All transport forces have worked hard to serve non-stop combat operations around the world for three decades,” Owen said. This is considered a major challenge while the US is focusing more on high-level threats such as Russia and China.

According to experts from the Mitchell Institute, the US Air Force also does not seem to have enough transport aircraft to meet the Flexible Combat Deployment (ACE) strategy. This is a strategy of dispersing aircraft and weapons at many different bases, to limit damage when attacked.

ACE stipulates that fighter and logistics units will regularly rotate positions in an unpredictable manner between fixed and semi-permanent bases and forward refueling and refueling facilities (FARP).

The first two types of bases can operate thanks to prepared reserves and support from the host allied nation, while FARP depends almost entirely on transport forces to supply fuel, weapons and manpower.

The US Air Force has trained on ACE for many years, allowing soldiers to practice maintaining, taking off and landing aircraft in non-traditional locations such as field airports and highways.

However, former Colonel Owen commented that the US Air Force does not yet possess many aircraft capable of transporting combat equipment and supplies to forward bases with short runways and soft ground. The US Air Force has not announced plans to add such aircraft and does not have the budget to do so.

“Continuing to maintain and expand the transport aircraft force should be considered a priority for the US Department of Defense,” he urged.

Business Insider writer Chris Panella also shares the same opinion, saying that airlift capability may be the “Achilles’ heel” in the US military’s plan to survive when conflicts break out with peer opponents.

This is just part of a series of challenges that the US Air Force is facing. This force is increasingly shrinking in size and becoming old, and is under great pressure from anti-terrorism campaigns launched by the government.

Military leaders, veterans and experts warn that while the United States faces a decline in the number of aircraft and combat readiness, the Chinese air force is rapidly expanding and modernizing.

“Washington still has a significant advantage in the field of stealth aircraft, logistics, combat experience and support from allies, but Beijing is gradually narrowing the gap,” Panella said.