Israel assesses: the protests in Iran are not expected to topple the regime at this time

In recent days, Israel has been closely following the wave of protests in Iran, and discussions and consultations are taking place at the political and security level in an attempt to assess whether the developments may destabilize the regime in Tehran – and where the supreme leader is heading in the international arena. This evening (Tuesday) we published in the “Central Edition” the assessments presented by officials in the security system and the intelligence community to the political level: at this point in time, the likelihood that the riots will topple the regime is low.

In the closed discussions held in recent days, the intelligence community estimates that the regime’s repression mechanisms in Iran continue to operate relatively effectively. According to one of the estimates heard, the Basij, a force that helps enforce the law and is subordinate to the Revolutionary Guards, is managing to contain the protest centers in the meantime.

“The level of loyalty of the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards to the Iranian government has not been significantly damaged,” the intelligence officials estimated: the Basij is still working to protect the regime.

However, the security system emphasizes that this is only a current situation, which may change quickly. Sources aware of the discussions noted that although the protest is not seen as threatening the very existence of the regime – there is a fear of a scenario of miscalculation – internal or external – that could escalate the situation unexpectedly.

Alongside the assessments of the internal arena of the Islamic Republic, Israel is also examining the manner in which Iran’s leadership may act in the international arena. According to the estimates heard in the closed rooms, precisely against the background of the demonstrations and the fear of external harm – it is possible that the regime in Tehran will strive to accelerate diplomatic contacts with the United States. “Under the auspices of the protests – the chance of turning to negotiations increases, with the aim of softening pressures and reducing risks,” said one of the assessments.

Sources also stated that the very conduct of the negotiations, regardless of whether it will actually lead to a nuclear agreement, may serve the regime at this stage. According to the same view, diplomatic contacts can give Tehran breathing room vis-a-vis the US administration and reduce the likelihood of an external confrontation, while the regime faces domestic challenges.

The IDF refused to comment on the estimates cited in the article and clarified that they do not respond to internal analyzes presented to the political and security level.