Trump’s strategy to conquer Greenland

But what is Greenland? Let’s try this: it is an autonomous territory of a sovereign European kingdom, armored by international law (at least as we knew it in the twentieth century) but exposed geopolitically to military treaties that make the American presence “constitutive” of its security since the end of the Second World War.

Danish rule

It all dates back to 1814.

At the end of the Napoleonic Wars, Denmark (ally of the defeated Napoleon) was forced to cede Norway to Sweden with the Treaty of Kiel. But the Danish negotiator achieved a diplomatic masterpiece: in the text of the cession, he excluded the old Norwegian Atlantic possessions.

While Norway passed to the Swedes, Denmark held onto Iceland, the Faroe Islands and, of course, Greenland. It is on that piece of paper signed over two hundred years ago that Copenhagen still bases its historical legitimacy today.

The Seal of the Hague (1933)

Danish sovereignty did not remain unchallenged. In 1931, Norway occupied East Greenland, claiming it to be no man’s land (no man’s land). The dispute ended up before the Permanent Court of International Justice, the forerunner of the current International Court of Justice, which resolves disputes between states on behalf of the UN. The headquarters of both are in The Hague and have an architecture and a name more suited to fairy tales: Peace Palace.

With the 1933 ruling, the judges established a revolutionary principle for remote areas: to own the Arctic you don’t need to garrison every fjord. Just themind to occupy (the intention to act as sovereign) and minimal but effective administration. That ruling closed the door on Norwegian claims and sealed Greenland as Danish territory.

The turning point of 1953: from subjects to citizens

Trump’s biggest obstacle is not geographic, but constitutional. Until 1953, Greenland was formally a colony. If we were still in that era, Denmark could theoretically have ceded it as it did with the Virgin Islands (sold to the US in 1917).

But in 1953, an amendment to the Danish Constitution changed everything: the island was integrated into the Kingdom as a county (later to become an autonomous region), and its inhabitants became full Danish citizens.

This step makes the “purchase”, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke about with Republican parliamentarians, legally impossible: a democratic state cannot sell its citizens or the land on which they live without their consent. Today Greenland is part of the Commonwealth of Nations (the Kingdom Community), a union of equals, not a possession.

The Hidden Landlord: The Defense Agreement

Here we come to the heart of realpolitik. While Denmark is legally in charge, militarily Greenland is already under the American umbrella.

The 1951 Defense Treaty (Defense of Greenland Agreement), signed at the beginning of the Cold War and still in force, grants the United States rights that closely resemble those of a sovereign: the United States has exclusive use of vast areas, such as the Thule Air Base (now Pituffik Space Base). Located 1,200 km north of the Polar Circle, it is the hub of America’s missile warning system and satellite control. But US forces have “unrestricted” access and movement rights to Greenland for military operations, overflight and navigation. Within defense areas, but this also applies in other countries, American military law essentially applies.

Trump doesn’t need to invade Greenland to use it: the US is already there. His purchase proposal is an attempt to remove the Danish political interface and project (also for internal consensus purposes) the updated version of the Make America Great Again motto, in which “America” ​​is replaced with “the Americas”, the Americas. His supporters are already doing it on political talk shows on Fox News and NewsMax: it is not true that we have broken our promise to be isolationists, to take care of our backyard it is not the same as launching ourselves into impossible wars like in Afghanistan or Iraq.

The “backdoor” of independence

How could the purchase materialize in 2026? The key is in Nuuk, not Copenhagen.

The 2009 Self-Government Law grants Greenlanders the right to secede. If they voted for an independence referendum tomorrow, Denmark would not be able to oppose it.

The American strategy is not “buy from Denmark”, but “finance the secession”. Convince the 57,000 Greenlanders to vote “Yes” to farewell in Copenhagen, promising to replace the Danish subsidy (the Block Grant of around 600 million dollars a year) with an even richer sum, the promise of billions in investments and the possibility of extracting natural resources without the environmental constraints of the European Union (of which it is not part) which affect its main trading partners. Perhaps obtaining a hybrid status like Puerto Rico: not the 51st American state, but a territory with security and financial guarantees.

For the Greenlanders, who are experiencing an economic crisis, between the cost of housing and brain drain, and at the same time an Inuit cultural rebirth, the risk is to move from a distant and respectful partner (Denmark) to a cumbersome master, with the fear of ending up like the natives of the prairies or Alaska. Washington is already investing in cultural diplomacy, if we want to call it that, offering scholarships and sending JD Vance on missions. For now, they don’t like the idea of ​​becoming an “American aircraft carrier”: 85% have declared their opposition. But history teaches that sovereignty is fluid. (by Giorgio Rutelli)