Ali Khamenei in the test of survival: the existential challenge of Iran in the last line

The government’s attempts to appease the public with a monthly grant worth seven dollars were met with derision. At the same time, the value gap between the regime and Iranian society, where women currently enjoy full literacy and are the majority in universities, has become unbridgeable.

Moreover, direct attacks by Israel and the United States, which included the bombing of nuclear facilities by American B-2 bombers, shattered the regime’s perception of security and the assumption that the militias serve as an insurance certificate against foreign attack. To get out of the economic crisis, Khamenei needs the removal of sanctions, but President Trump demands a complete renunciation of uranium enrichment and the dismantling of the regional terrorist network.

Analysts estimate that if the leader refuses to compromise, elements within the regime, led by the Revolutionary Guards, may act to push him aside to ensure the survival of the system the day after. As experts in Washington have pointed out, the alternative to a significant change at the top is mass violence and the possibility of civil war and the dissolution of the state.