China, cradles have never been so empty and the population is still decreasing

According to data released by the National Statistics Office, at the end of 2025 the population fell to 1.405 billion, approximately 3.39 million less than the previous year. New births were 7.92 million, compared to 9.54 million in 2024, bringing the birth rate to a historic low of 5.63 births per thousand inhabitants. In the same period, deaths rose to 11.31 million, with a mortality rate of 8.04 per thousand, the highest level since 1968, in the midst of the Cultural Revolution under the leadership of Mao Zedong.

The sharp decline in 2025 follows the temporary rebound recorded the previous year, which largely coincided with the Year of the Dragon, traditionally considered in Chinese culture to be auspicious for marriages and births. Once the symbolic effect of the “lucky” year was over, births began to decline again, part of a now structural trend aggravated by the legacy of the one-child policy and an uncertain economic context. 2026, the Year of the Horse, is considered “neutral” for the birth rate, while a new decline is expected in 2027, the Year of the Sheep, considered a bad omen according to the widespread popular proverb according to which “9 out of 10 sheep are destined to be incomplete”.

In recent years Beijing has abolished birth limits, allowing up to three children per couple, and introduced subsidies, bonuses and longer parental leaves, but without significant results. The fertility rate remains around one child per woman, well below the replacement threshold, while the absence of immigration makes it difficult to compensate for the natural decline. The consequences are serious for the economy and welfare: the workforce continues to shrink, the number of elderly people is growing and the pension system is showing signs of difficulty. According to the United Nations, China’s population could more than halve by 2100making the demographic crisis perhaps the most pressing challenge facing Beijing’s leadership in the coming decades.