Earthquake in Europe? The continent is preparing for the most fateful elections of all

In about three months, Hungary will face one of the most fateful election systems it has known in recent years, and perhaps also the one that will affect the future of the entire European Union more than any other. The elections to the Hungarian Parliament will be held on Sunday, April 12, and on the agenda is the question of the continuation of the rule of the veteran Prime Minister Viktor Orban, or a political upheaval that will end his 15 consecutive years of rule.

Orban, 62, heads a populist nationalist government and leads the Fidesz party. Under his leadership, a system that he himself calls “illiberal democracy” was established in Hungary. Over the years, the government strengthened its control over the media and government companies, reduced the independence of the judiciary and promoted legislation that damaged the country’s transparency ratings. Hungary is currently ranked at the bottom of the EU’s rule of law index.

In front of Orban stands his biggest challenge after years in power. Petar Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisa party, a former ally of Orban and a conservative right-winger, leads the polls by a considerable margin. According to a recent polling average, Tissa receives about 49% support, compared to 37% for Fidesz. This is an advantage of 12 points, a trend that has been going on for almost a year. Political rallies and demonstrations organized by Magyar are attended by tens of thousands all over the country.

For many citizens in Hungary, the upcoming elections are seen as a referendum on Orban’s model. Beyond internal questions of corruption, nepotism and damage to the economy, the elections also have a broad European significance. Orban is considered the closest EU leader to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and he consistently hampers Brussels’ attempts to forge a unified line with the Kremlin. He has often used Hungary’s veto power to delay sanctions on Russia, block aid to Ukraine and stall urgent EU decisions. Along with Putin, Orban is one of Trump’s closest allies in the European Union, an explosive issue in itself these days when Trump threatens the EU and the NATO alliance.

Orban also frequently confronts the European Union on issues such as immigration and LGBT rights. At the beginning of the year, he even predicted that the European Union would break up on its own. At the same time, he became a key figure in the populist right-wing camp in Europe and around the world, and receives public support from leaders and figures from the hard right, including Marine Le Pen from France, Giorgio Maloney from Italy, Javier Millais from Argentina and many others. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also expressed his support for him. In a campaign video published by Orban.

The election itself is being conducted in a tense atmosphere. Magyar accuses Orban and his party of corruption and favoring oligarchs that harms the economy, as well as the loss of aid funds from the European Union due to the conflicts with Brussels. On the other hand, Orban presents Magyar as a puppet of the European Union and claims that a flight party will carry out any demand from Brussels without hesitation.

Tissa Party follows a relatively cautious strategy, and prefers to avoid unequivocal statements on explosive issues, with the aim of attracting a broad spectrum of voters, from green and left to disillusioned right-wing voters. Her stated goal is to obtain an absolute majority in parliament that would allow for the change of election laws and constitutional amendments, which she claims were designed by Orban in his favor.

Airline officials told Politico that the government is expected to use all means at its disposal to stay in power, including state propaganda, smears, artificial intelligence-based spoofing and exploitation of the election system. According to the existing election laws, voters of Hungarian origin in neighboring countries are given the option to vote by mail, while citizens living abroad but registered in Hungary are required to go to embassies.

Despite the unequal conditions, including against the background of the government’s control of the media, commentators believe that Magyar’s victory is possible – as long as the integrity of the voting process is preserved. However, even in the case of a change of government, the change is likely to be slow and very cumbersome. Key constitutional institutions and senior officials will continue to serve even after the elections, which may limit the promotion of rapid reforms.

In the economic arena, Orban is trying to strengthen public support for him ahead of the elections. In recent days, his government announced an aid package of 100 billion forints (a little over 300 million dollars) for the restaurant industry, tax breaks in the tourism and entertainment sector, and other measures in view of the cost of living, which is at the top of the public’s concerns. In addition, wage increases, benefits for families, vouchers for retirees and a supplement to pensions were announced.

The European Union is closely following what is happening in Budapest. Many in Brussels hope for Magyar’s victory which will lead to a softening of relations with Hungary and a reduction of the veto policy and conflicts. However, even Magyar himself does not necessarily present an enthusiastic pro-European line, and has made it clear in the past that he does not support the establishment of a super-European state.

Either way, the elections this April are expected to be a turning point. They may mark the end of Orban’s era, or alternatively give him a fifth term in a row and give him legitimacy that will further strengthen the model he leads. For Hungary, and for Europe as a whole, this is much more than an internal political struggle.