Meinl-Reisinger: “Nobody can be interested in a failed state Iran”

Experts in Muscat discuss the various possible impacts US attacks on Tehran on Oman, which is only separated from the major regional power by the Strait of Hormuz. Between the islands of Larak (Iran) and Great Quoin, Salama (Oman), the narrowest point on this important route for international oil trade is only around 38 kilometers.

Destabilization threatens

What the various scenarios being considered in Oman have in common is that a regime change in Iran could shake the entire region. That is why the rulers in Oman, Qatar, Dubai and Abu Dhabi have all spoken out against a US attack. There is therefore also hope that a deal will be reached between Washington and Tehran, as US President Donald Trump raised as a possibility on Tuesday after many threatening gestures.

Meinl-Reisinger also “hopes that nothing happens,” but speaks of the “very real danger” of a US attack in view of the American one Fleet deployment. “But I hear that there are still discussions,” she said in an interview with the KURIER in Muscat.

One of the many problems is that to date no alternative to the existing regime in Tehran has been foreseeable or found. After a regime change forced by military force, there is a risk of total chaos. “And on one Failed State Iran “Nobody can be interested,” says the minister.

Not so far

Of course, it is also true that the mullahs in Tehran have to initiate reforms in view of the severe economic crisis and, especially after the thousands of killings, cannot continue as before. Everyone agrees on this, including in the region and in Oman, says Meinl-Reisinger. The latter played an important mediating role in the resumption of nuclear talks between Iran and the USA last year.

There are various (unverifiable) statements from international organizations and NGOs about the number of victims mentioned on the streets of Iran. And also doubts about some of this information.

Yousuf Al Bulushi, the founder and head of the first private and, above all, independent think tank in Oman – the Muscat Policy Council – questioned the once-mentioned figure of 40,000 deaths in Iran in front of journalists. Since the Israelis bombed the Gaza Strip for weeks and there were around 70,000 deaths there, there could not have been 40,000 victims in Iran in such a short time and without bombing. “Otherwise there would have been 300,000 deaths in Gaza,” said Bulushi.