Sea raid capacity of Iranian UAV swarms

Iran’s Tasnim news agency said on January 29 that the army has added 1,000 armed drones (UAVs) to combat units, emphasizing that these are aircraft developed based on experience in the 12-day conflict with Israel and the US in June 2025.

Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia, Iranian military spokesman, said on the same day that US warships deployed in the Middle East, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, still have “serious weaknesses”. He warned that Tehran would target them if attacked by Washington.

The statement came after President Donald Trump announced that a “large fleet” was heading closer to Iran, amid increasing tensions between Tehran and Washington. Experts say that in addition to a powerful missile arsenal, the Iranian army also possesses formidable UAV combat capabilities, capable of causing damage to the enemy in the event of a large-scale conflict.

“US warships in the Middle East may face a significant threat from cheap suicide UAVs. Iran has developed effective asymmetric warfare capabilities to fight expensive weapons,” warned Cameron Chell, CEO of Draganfly company specializing in creating UAVs based in Canada.

According to Chell, the Iranian military has gained an advantage in manufacturing short- and medium-range UAVs, which are low-cost aircraft models that can be produced in large quantities and operate effectively in asymmetric warfare. “For large UAVs, such as the MQ‑1 Predator and MQ‑9 Reaper, Iran is still decades behind the US,” Chell assessed.

The US Military Intelligence Agency (DIA) once assessed UAVs as Iran’s fastest-growing air combat capability. The country initially developed UAVs to meet reconnaissance requirements, then converted them into aircraft that could attack ground targets or perform both tasks.

UAVs have supplemented Iran’s long-range attack capabilities with conventional weapons, in addition to thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles. This country has repeatedly used UAVs in combination with missiles in attacks against Israel in the period 2024-2025.

The threat to the US and its allies in the Middle East is increasing as Iranian UAVs become more and more sophisticated. Tehran is continuing to test coordinated raid tactics between UAV and missile squadrons to probe and defeat enemy air defense systems.

Besides the advantage in price and output, maintenance and training costs for personnel to operate UAVs are also less expensive than manned aircraft. Iran also has easier access to spare parts and components for UAVs than for fighter jets in service, especially US-made aircraft such as the F-4 and F-14.

Another advantage is that UAVs are difficult to detect, while their continuous operating time can be much longer than that of manned fighters. This is also a difficult goal for the US and its allies, because most Western weapons programs after the Cold War focused on intercepting expensive targets such as ballistic missiles.

The US has deployed many Patriot air defense missile batteries and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in the Middle East to counter ballistic missiles. However, the arrangement of the US air defense network still leaves gaps for short-range targets, Iran can take advantage of this with UAVs and low-flying cruise missiles.

Using existing US air defense complexes in the Middle East to counter UAVs is also very expensive. A PAC-3 MSE missile of the Patriot complex costs more than 4 million USD, while Iran’s suicide UAV costs only a few thousand to tens of thousands of USD each.

Chell predicts that Iran may apply the tactic of launching a large number of suicide UAVs in a short period of time to overwhelm the enemy defense system, ensuring that some aircraft will reach the target. “Modern defense systems are not designed to deal with this type of high-intensity attack. US surface warships operating near Iran will become the top priority,” Chell said.

Another method is to conduct prolonged raids, spreading out UAV forces to apply non-stop pressure for several days to weeks. This tactic will cause the enemy warship to always maintain a high state of combat readiness, pushing the crew and equipment to the limit, making them more susceptible to damage and mistakes.

The US Navy experienced a similar situation when conducting a campaign to deal with the Houthi armed group in the Red Sea last year.

In just 5 months of presence in the area, the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman lost a total of 3 F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter ships, each costing about 60 million USD, due to incidents of accidentally shooting teammates or the plane falling into the sea when the warship maneuvered to avoid Houthi fire.

Escorting destroyers also spend many expensive anti-aircraft missiles, each worth millions of dollars, to intercept UAVs and enemy anti-ship missiles.

Expert Chell noted that the US military and its allies are rapidly developing UAV defense capabilities, but there are still many uncertainties about the ability of the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to deal with large numbers of aircraft. “Iran’s UAV fleet is always a concern, providing a reliable capability to attack enemy surface warships,” he said.