Kiev, serious and substantial talks in Abu Dhabi. But Moscow continues to bomb

If it is the first day of talks concluded in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine, Russia and the United States, aimed at finding a way out of the war in Ukraine. Kiev called the negotiations “substantive and productive”specifying however that no breakthrough was recorded and that the talks they will continue for a second day. The negotiations, mediated by Washington, are part of a new phase of intense diplomatic activity which has so far failed to stop the conflict sparked by the Russian invasion of February 2022.

But Moscow intensifies its attacks

The talks took place as an intensification of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure has left many neighborhoods of Kiev in the dark and cold, with temperatures dropped to -20 degrees. Despite this, Ukrainian chief negotiator Rustem Umerov said the first day of discussions focused on “concrete steps and practical solutions.” As the talks began, the Kremlin reiterated its hard line. “Our position is well known,” said spokesman Dmitry Peskov, arguing that “until the Kiev regime takes appropriate decisions, the special military operation will continue.”

The threats from the Kremlin and the shadow of war

Le maximalist positions of the Kremlinand the de facto end of the brief and confusing “energy truce” have threatened to overshadow any possibility of progress in the Emirati capital, where efforts are being made to put an end to what has become thebloodiest conflict in Europesince World War II.

“Our position is well known,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, while the delegations were already in Abu Dhabi. “Until theregime in Kievwill not make appropriate decisions, thespecial military operationwill continue,” he warned.

Zelensky’s reaction and Trump’s intervention

The Ukrainian president,Volodymyr Zelenskystated that Russian attacks on theKiev energy system“confirm that the attitude in Moscow has not changed: they continue to bet onwar and the destruction of Ukraineand they don’t take diplomacy seriously.” “The work of our negotiating team will adapt accordingly,” he said yesterday, without providing further details.

However, the president of the United States,Donald Trumppraised the leader of Moscow,Vladimir Putinfor “keeping their word” on their promise of a week oftruce in the bombingson energy infrastructure in Kiev. Asked if he was disappointed that the Kremlin leader had not extended the ceasefire, Trump replied: “I would like him to.”

The participants at the negotiating table

Le delegations arrived in Abu Dhabithey have not changed compared to the first round at the end of January. This is demonstrated by the photos released by the Foreign Ministry of the Emirates: the Ukrainians, led by the secretary of the Security and Defense CouncilRustem Umerovthey are sitting opposite the Russians, headed by the director of military intelligence (GRU)Igor Kostyukov; among them, sit iAmerican delegateswith correspondent Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law in the front row,Jared Kushner.

The fate of Donbass and the preconditions

The problem to be solved remains, formally, thefate of Donbassthe region of eastern Ukraine.Moscow asks Kievto withdraw his troops from the entire area asprecondition for any peace agreementand international recognition ofoccupied territoriesduring the invasion. Kiev, however, proposes tofreeze the conflictalong the current front line and rejects the unilateral withdrawal of its forces which it reads as a surrender. Ukraine warned that giving up ground would encourage Moscow and said it was ready to compromise but only in the face of clearsecurity guaranteesby the West to prevent Russia from invading again.

RPolitik analysis: the future of Ukraine

Assume that theUkrainian withdrawal from Donbassending the war would be wrong, the think tank notesRPoliticsin a recent analysis. “For Russia it would simply open the door to amuch broader negotiationon the long-term orientation of Ukraine” which, among other things, should include achange of political leadershipand an agreement on the wholereview of the security architecture in Europe.

In this regard theposition of the Kremlindoes not change and remains incompatible with European and Ukrainian interests:security guaranteesenforced by the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and neutral states, with Russia maintaining theright of vetoon every possible initiative; no deployment of NATO troops on Ukrainian territory ereduction of the Kiev army.

“Two aspects also remain unchanged” and do not bode well, RPolitik always points out, “theUnited States will not risk a war with Russiafor Ukraine and Europe will not act without the United States.”