War with Russia? In Europe they were amazed at their poor condition

European governments are preparing for the possibility of a military confrontation with Russia, but a recently published war exercise raises serious question marks about their level of preparedness, the Wall Street Journal wrote this morning (Thursday). According to political and security sources on the continent, the risk of Russian penetration or even a direct invasion of the territories of NATO and European Union countries has increased, against the background of the tensions between Europe and US President Donald Trump over Greenland, Ukraine, trade and other issues.

The same factors indicate that Russia has moved to a war economy. It is focusing national resources on re-arming and recruiting soldiers on a scale that far exceeds the needs of fighting in Ukraine alone. The main question now preoccupying Europe is not if a conflict will happen, but when. In the past, the assessment in Berlin and other capitals was that Russia would not be able to threaten NATO before 2029. Today, a wider consensus is forming that the crisis may come much earlier, even before Europe, which is now increasing its investments in security, is even ready to fight back.

The Minister of Defense of the Netherlands, Ruben Berklemans, said that according to his estimation, Russia will be able to move large forces in just one year. According to him, there is an increase in Russia’s strategic stocks and the expansion of its presence and means along NATO’s borders.

According to estimates in Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to “return the crown to its former glory” and restore the glory of the Russian Empire. Countries that were formerly part of it, including Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, are seen as obvious destinations. All three have been members of the European Union and NATO for about twenty years.

In Lithuania itself there is a growing concern. The country’s national security adviser, Davids Matulionis, said that the anxiety is well felt, but at the same time the country is preparing to defend itself. He emphasized that even if Lithuania expects assistance from the US and its NATO allies in the event of a Russian incursion, its own forces should not be underestimated, which he says will fight even before the arrival of reinforcements.

Military planners in NATO also fear the possibility that Russia will target the islands under the control of Sweden, Finland and Denmark in the Baltic Sea, parts of Poland and the northern regions of Norway and Finland. In addition, there is a fear of a campaign of attacks on strategic infrastructures in Europe, even up to the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands.

The most heated public debate was ignited by a war exercise that simulated a Russian invasion of Lithuania. The exercise was organized in December by the German newspaper Die Welt together with the Military Games Center of the Helmut Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces. 16 former senior officials from Germany and NATO, legislators and security experts participated in the exercise, and it simulated a scenario that takes place in October 2026.

In this scenario, Russia used the claim of a humanitarian crisis in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad as an excuse to take over the Lithuanian city of Mariampula, a major transportation hub in a narrow area between Russia and Belarus. Presenting the move as a humanitarian intervention was enough for the US not to invoke Article 5 of NATO, which requires mutual assistance. (in the game) Germany hesitated, Poland did mobilize forces but did not send them to the territory of Lithuania, and the German brigade that was already deployed in the country did not intervene, among other things after Russia laid mines using unmanned aircraft on the roads leading from the base.

A military analyst from Vienna, Franz Stefan Gadi, who played the role of the Russian Chief of Staff in the exercise, said that deterrence depends not only on military capabilities but also on what the enemy believes about the willingness to use them. According to him, the understanding that Germany would hesitate was enough to bring about victory in the exercise.

Mariampola, a city of about 35 thousand inhabitants, sits on one of the most strategic road junctions in Europe. To the south and west runs the Via Baltica road that connects the Baltic states to Poland and is used by heavy truck traffic from all over the European Union and Ukraine. Another road connects Belarus to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, and Lithuania is bound by the agreement to keep it open to Russian traffic.

In the exercise itself, and in the absence of American leadership, Russia managed within a few days to undermine NATO’s credibility and take control of the Baltic states, using an initial force of only about 15,000 soldiers. A Polish security analyst, who played the role of the Prime Minister of Poland, said that the exercise showed how much Europe tends to think that it should calm down and de-escalate when it is faced with a threatening narrative from Russia.

In reality, according to the head of the Defense Staff of Lithuania, Gaydrius Parmantskas, early intelligence warnings would have been received that would have made it possible to avoid such a scenario. According to him, even without the help of allies – Lithuania’s forces, numbering 17 thousand soldiers in routine and 58 thousand after immediate mobilization, could have faced a limited threat to Mariampula. He added that Russia should also have considered the risks, noting that if it embarked on such a move, NATO would have to make it clear that Russia could lose Kaliningrad.

The commander of Germany’s ground forces, General Christian Freuding, said during a visit to Lithuania that according to NATO intelligence estimates, Russia will not be able to act against the allies before 2029, but emphasized that Germany and its allies are ready to fight now, “without entering into speculation about timetables.”

The debate surrounding the urgency of the Russian threat directly affects European security planning. The skeptical elements on the continent point to Russia’s slow progress in Ukraine and the heavy price it is paying there. The President of Finland, Alexander Stov, said that Putin failed in almost every goal he set for himself in the war and did not try to confront NATO at all, so Russian capabilities should not be overestimated.

According to figures presented by sources in Lithuania, Russia recruits about 35,000 new soldiers per month but loses about 30,000 in the various combat arenas in Ukraine, which slows down its ability to build strength. However, in Europe it is emphasized that the war in Ukraine gives Moscow precious time to prepare, and they warn that if an agreement is signed there, Russia could re-accelerate its war machine without hindrance.

Even without such an agreement, there are estimates that Russia could immediately release up to 200,000 experienced soldiers just by switching from attacking to holding the lines, a larger number than it used in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Defense sources explain that Russia will not attempt a war of attrition against NATO, but may act early to obtain comfortable positions that are easy to defend, just as shown in the war game.

The “De Welt” exercise also emphasized the use of hybrid tactics, especially under the guise of humanitarian action, to justify military action. According to participants in the exercise, such a narrative could make decision-making in NATO more difficult, especially at a time when officials in the US administration sometimes embrace the Russian position.

The defense minister of the Netherlands warned that the gray area between peace and war is “getting darker”. In the end, he said, the decision whether to cross the line that activates Article 5 rests with the affected country and the other allies, and Russia is aware that this is ambiguous territory and will therefore try to push the borders further and further.